Alarm Bells for Hillary in Iowa & NH
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 18th, 2007 11:05 pmCount me down as a member of the Hillary-is-inevitable club, but these numbers showing her running tied for 3rd in Iowa and tied for 2nd in New Hampshire have got to be concerning:
Zogby, 596 likely Iowa caucus-goers, MOE +/- 4.6%
Edwards 27
Obama 17
Vilsack 16
Clinton 16
Biden 3
Kerry 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Unsure 13
And in New Hampshire:
Zogby, 502 registered voters, MOE +/- 4.5%
Obama 23
Clinton 19
Edwards 19
Kerry 5
Clark 3
Biden 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Biden 1
Unsure 22
If these numbers held, the results would be catastrophic for Hillary Clinton. Out of the gate, she is required to seize momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire where the terrain favors insurgents and where anointed frontrunners rarely exceed expectations.
Watch for her to sic Howard Wolfson on Edwards and Obama, methodically dismantling their early popularity. But if she takes down one, will their support naturally flow to the other?
This is yet another distinguishing feature of 2008: we seem to know who the insurgents are. The most plausible non-Hillary candidates are already well-known and/or vetted. With dullards rounding out the Democratic field, that makes it less and likely that this cycle will see a repeat of the insurgent-rising-from-nowhere we’ve seen the last few times out.
Tagged: 2008 
barack obama hillary clinton john edwards
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Just as there is general antipathy towards Clinton on the right, there is displeasure towards her from the left, particularly towards her nuanced pro-war stance, which will alienate many progressive voters in the early primaries and caucuses. Edwards is sounding the loudest anti-war message at this time, and it seems to be resonating.
In Iowa, at least one key Dem on the ground there has said that he would be surprised if Edwards didn’t win that state. He has strong labor support in Nevada, and he has already won South Carolina once before. I just hope, as the author suggests, that Obama and Edwards don’t cancel each other out.
The Zogby poll of likely GOP caucus voters in Iowa shows support for Condi Rice at 9%. There also was another poll in New Hampshire showing her at 7%.
Including her name in these polls is fair, given the nationa movement of support for her to run.
Marist did a poll, late 2006, asking the question, “who do you WANT to run?”
42% said Condi Rice. Now that is NEWS!!!!
[…] UPDATE I: Trouble already in the Primaries. […]