Alarm Bells for Hillary in Iowa & NH
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 18th, 2007 11:05 pmCount me down as a member of the Hillary-is-inevitable club, but these numbers showing her running tied for 3rd in Iowa and tied for 2nd in New Hampshire have got to be concerning:
Zogby, 596 likely Iowa caucus-goers, MOE +/- 4.6%
Edwards 27
Obama 17
Vilsack 16
Clinton 16
Biden 3
Kerry 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Unsure 13
And in New Hampshire:
Zogby, 502 registered voters, MOE +/- 4.5%
Obama 23
Clinton 19
Edwards 19
Kerry 5
Clark 3
Biden 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Biden 1
Unsure 22
If these numbers held, the results would be catastrophic for Hillary Clinton. Out of the gate, she is required to seize momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire where the terrain favors insurgents and where anointed frontrunners rarely exceed expectations.
Watch for her to sic Howard Wolfson on Edwards and Obama, methodically dismantling their early popularity. But if she takes down one, will their support naturally flow to the other?
This is yet another distinguishing feature of 2008: we seem to know who the insurgents are. The most plausible non-Hillary candidates are already well-known and/or vetted. With dullards rounding out the Democratic field, that makes it less and likely that this cycle will see a repeat of the insurgent-rising-from-nowhere we’ve seen the last few times out.
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Tagged: 2008 
barack obama hillary clinton john edwards
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