Reweighting Newsweek’s ‘08 Poll
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 20th, 2007 6:42 pmIt doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Newsweek’s polling leaves much to be desired. Nevertheless, a poll showing Hillary essentially tied with the leading Republican candidates will probably get a lot of attention on a weekend where the former First Lady took the plunge with her exploratory committee.
Newsweek shows Hillary leading John McCain by 1 and trailing Rudy Giuliani by 1. John Edwards’ advantage over McCain and Giuliani is 5 and 3 points respectively. Obama leads McCain by 2 and trails Giuliani by 2.
In polling against Hillary, both leading Republicans capture more of their base than any Democrat does their base, while generally getting more of the independent vote. So, the Party breakdown of registered voters in this poll comes as no surprise:
Republican 26%
Democrat 37%
Independent 33%
No party/Not interested 2%
Other party *
Don’t know 2%
That’s right, the poll is +11D, and there are suddenly 30% less Republicans than there were last November.
How would these results look if the responses were re-weighted to reflect the makeup of the electorate in 2006, an overwhelmingly Democratic year?
Giuliani 51.8% - Clinton 44.6%
McCain 50.5% - Clinton 45.2%Giuliani 50.6% - Obama 42.5%
McCain 47.4% - Obama 44.4%Giuliani 49.3% - Edwards 45.2%
McCain 47.2% - Edwards 45.9%
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Tagged: 2008 
hillary clinton john mccain rudy giuliani
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