2008: Year of the Frontrunner Online?
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 30th, 2007 9:25 amThe Internet Primary is already in full swing, with the digerati already handicapping who the next Howard Dean is. You can see this at play in this Personal Democracy Forum piece on the Democrats.
I have two overall impressions.
The first is that we are already far ahead of where we were in 2004. Many of the candidates already have established e-mail lists, blogs are a focus from Day One, and new channels like YouTube, Facebook, and MySpace allow us to take online politics to the masses in a way that wasn’t really possible before.
The second is that time, unlike in 2004, it’s the frontrunners who seem to have the advantage. In this category I include Giuliani (who is my client), McCain, and Romney for the Republicans, and Clinton, Obama, and Edwards for the Democrats. Anyone looking for the next Dean-like online phenonemon won’t find him or her at the back of the current pack.
Look at this Alexa chart surrounding the announcements of the top three Democrats. The traffic rates are exactly what you’d find in any power ranking of the Democratic field: Clinton (who peaked at 850/million for her announcement), Obama (500/million), and Edwards (180/million). Tom Vilsack? Chris Dodd? They barely register.
The Democrats have the edge in traffic right now. But that’s not surprising. All three Democrats used the medium to make news through an online video declaring their intentions. We used to do this all the time at the RNC — posting Web videos that made news on cable and drove lots of traffic to the site. Part of the difference is timing: the Democrats mostly came out in the traditional January announcement season. With the exception of Mitt Romney, the Republican frontrunners quietly set up their exploratory committees in the immediate aftermath of the November elections, when such a video announcement would have been tacky.
The Republicans are more tightly bunched together, and that’s to be expected given their more modest totals. Still, the Big Three seem to be ahead, even with the flurry of announcements from the back of the field (Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, Tancredo, Paul). But as with the Democrats we can expect the frontrunner edge to widen when they really start making news on their sites.
One of the most annoying memes I’ve had to swat down in the last two years is that the Internet intrinsically favors dark horse insurgents. That might have been true in 1996 or 2000 or even a bit in 2004 when the Internet was still largely in early adopter phase. (Visiting certain message boards in 1996, you would have thought Libertarian candidate Harry Browne was the prohibitive favorite.) Since then, the Internet has gone mainstream. That means the medium favors people who are popular AND smart about using it. See how Hillary uses her greater earned media pull to overwhelm her anemic numbers in the blogosphere.
Tagged: 2008 
online politics
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Interesting that the national polls over the past few months have shown strong support for Secretary of State Condi Rice to run. (Marist poll of November 2006 shows 45% support for her to run in 2008)
Also, in the past, Gallup and Quinnipiac polls gave Condi equal footing with Rudy and McCain at 20%.
This was not based on internet discussion, it was based on the fact various groups are promoting Condi Rice. One of the groups has been running TV and radio ads, (FCC records had to be filed to show who paid for them and how long they ran.)
Any good researcher could verify this data, showing the people want her to run.
Now on the other hand, the internet provides a place where people like me can express our opinions. But to get work done, we have to raise money and organize. That has been done for www.thinkcondi.net; getting people in Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Texas, and S Carolina to step up with their money and their support.
Instead of seeking office, like an ambitious politican, Condi is doing her work for our CURRENT and ONLY president, George W Bush. Instead of trying to undermine him within the Republican party, she is trying to help him complete his plan for the Middle East in the next 2 years.
She is the ONLY person who has foreign policy experience.
Tell me that last time a US Senator was part of making foreign policy in the White House? It was not Biden or Obama or Edwards.