Handicapping Obama vs. Hillary
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 21st, 2007 6:31 pmIt’s rare that I find something on HuffPo worth linking to, but Steve Rosenbaum’s take on Obama vs. Hillary’s video e-announcements is totally on point. Rosenbaum is the director of the long tail documentary on Kerry’s campaign “Inside the Bubble” that I would totally buy if he released it on DVD already.
Simply put - Obama’s words feel like his own. Both convincing and colloquial. Direct and spoken without any sense that he’s being asked to read ‘copy’. His delivery is authentic. In stark contrast, Hillary is struggling with words that are not her own. You can practically see the tele-prompter reflected in her eyes. Every word has been word smithed, every phrase looked at by a team of consultants. Even the subject line of the email - “I’m in. And I’m in to win”- seems to respond to some unspoken marketing concern about her candidacy. Clinton’s video is directed to look ‘casual’ , with the camera panning gently back and forth (like those old Maxwell House commercials). In contrast - Obama’s spot doesn’t attempt any false causal film effects… counting instead on his ability to deliver his message direct to camera. Don’t get me wrong, there a moments were Clinton is clearly speaking her mind, when she says with a bit of exasperation - “after Six Years of George Bush…it is time to renew the promise of America.” But when she then says - “Let’s talk, lets chat…” you can just see the speech writers trying to find a way to soften her with the word ‘chat’. Please. Hillary Clinton doesn’t ‘chat’ - and it’s not credible coming out of her mouth. “Because the conversation in Washington has been a little one sided - don’t ‘ca think.” I do, but I don’t by Hillary talking in slang. Obama instead is almost flat - straight - not overselling or over-promising. Just laying out his plans, with a frankness that’s refreshing.
Don’t put me down as a big Obama fan, but with candidates spending more time speaking direct to camera in 2008, authenticity will count for more and more and the ability to speak in pre-packaged soundbites will matter less and less.
Via The Wire.
UPDATE: And the prize for least compelling video announcement goes to… Bill Richardson.
Tagged: 2008 
barack obama bill richardson hillary clinton
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Reweighting Newsweek’s ‘08 Poll
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 20th, 2007 6:42 pmIt doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Newsweek’s polling leaves much to be desired. Nevertheless, a poll showing Hillary essentially tied with the leading Republican candidates will probably get a lot of attention on a weekend where the former First Lady took the plunge with her exploratory committee.
Newsweek shows Hillary leading John McCain by 1 and trailing Rudy Giuliani by 1. John Edwards’ advantage over McCain and Giuliani is 5 and 3 points respectively. Obama leads McCain by 2 and trails Giuliani by 2.
In polling against Hillary, both leading Republicans capture more of their base than any Democrat does their base, while generally getting more of the independent vote. So, the Party breakdown of registered voters in this poll comes as no surprise:
Republican 26%
Democrat 37%
Independent 33%
No party/Not interested 2%
Other party *
Don’t know 2%
That’s right, the poll is +11D, and there are suddenly 30% less Republicans than there were last November.
How would these results look if the responses were re-weighted to reflect the makeup of the electorate in 2006, an overwhelmingly Democratic year?
Giuliani 51.8% - Clinton 44.6%
McCain 50.5% - Clinton 45.2%Giuliani 50.6% - Obama 42.5%
McCain 47.4% - Obama 44.4%Giuliani 49.3% - Edwards 45.2%
McCain 47.2% - Edwards 45.9%
Tagged: 2008 hillary clinton john mccain rudy giuliani
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Hillary’s In
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 20th, 2007 11:39 am 
Hillary Clinton announced on her Web site this morning, using the same video announcement gambit Obama used on Tuesday.
Excuse me if I call this just a little desperate. Who announces on a Saturday? And though the format closely mimicks Obama’s announcement, which generated just phenomenal traffic, she comes off as the same old Hillary — nowhere close to real or authentic. Plus, the most powerful part of Obama’s site isn’t the announcement, but the slick bio video.
As I speculated when I first reviewed Hillary’s re-elect website, she has build a robust set of action tools that could easily be repurposed for a Presidential race. The old site was too soft, this one borrows too much of the tiresome Web 2.0 design style (complete with “the shiny”).
The most interesting piece of content on the site is a polling memo from Mark Penn on how Hillary can win.
Other features include a series of live video chats (borrowing a page from Arnold Schwarzenegger) and a “write our first guest blog” contest, which is very 2004 in an age of community and celebrity blogs.
I have to give them credit for announcing online. It has the same press value as a traditional announcement and it should drive e-mail signups and donations. The New York Times piece even focuses extensively on the Web site because, well, that’s all there is right now.
UPDATE: Hotline picks up on something very significant. Hillary has decided to turn down general election matching funds.
Tagged: 2008 barack obama hillary clinton online politics
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Alarm Bells for Hillary in Iowa & NH
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 18th, 2007 11:05 pmCount me down as a member of the Hillary-is-inevitable club, but these numbers showing her running tied for 3rd in Iowa and tied for 2nd in New Hampshire have got to be concerning:
Zogby, 596 likely Iowa caucus-goers, MOE +/- 4.6%
Edwards 27
Obama 17
Vilsack 16
Clinton 16
Biden 3
Kerry 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Unsure 13
And in New Hampshire:
Zogby, 502 registered voters, MOE +/- 4.5%
Obama 23
Clinton 19
Edwards 19
Kerry 5
Clark 3
Biden 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Biden 1
Unsure 22
If these numbers held, the results would be catastrophic for Hillary Clinton. Out of the gate, she is required to seize momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire where the terrain favors insurgents and where anointed frontrunners rarely exceed expectations.
Watch for her to sic Howard Wolfson on Edwards and Obama, methodically dismantling their early popularity. But if she takes down one, will their support naturally flow to the other?
This is yet another distinguishing feature of 2008: we seem to know who the insurgents are. The most plausible non-Hillary candidates are already well-known and/or vetted. With dullards rounding out the Democratic field, that makes it less and likely that this cycle will see a repeat of the insurgent-rising-from-nowhere we’ve seen the last few times out.
Tagged: 2008 barack obama hillary clinton john edwards
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The Half-Arsed Hundred Hours
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 18th, 2007 6:35 pmConsider this a lesson in how not to make news.
So, it was going to be the First 100 Hours.
Then it was going to be the first 100 legislative hours. It’s been 342 hours since the Democrats took over — plenty of time to squeeze in those 100 hours.
But no. It turns out we are actually in the 42nd hour of the Democrat 100 Hours — with all the agenda items complete.
Is it 100 hours? 342? Or 42? I’m thoroughly confused.
Talk about a monumentally mismanaged rollout. First, come up with a benchmark that means something different than it says. Then show people how little grasp you have of Congress by actually working less than half as hard as you promised over the “100 Hours” period.
And the 100 342 42 Hours is supposed to get people all excited and singing “Happy Days Are Here Again?”
Tagged: congress democrats nancy pelosi steny hoyer
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Poll: Ranking the ‘08 Dem Websites
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 18th, 2007 1:58 pmWith more and more candidates announcing on the Web, I decided to run a poll on which 2008 websites people like the most. And I’m keeping it to just the Democrats, so folks don’t just vote for their preferred candidate. Click on each one and thin-slice it.
Which 2008 Democrat candidate has the best website?
Tagged: 2008 democrats online politics
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Ultrasounds Change the Life Debate
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 16th, 2007 7:07 pmAs an expectant father of twins this spring, this really hit home.
4D imagery let my wife and I come face to face with the little ones. For me, the debate about when life began was no longer an abstraction, but proven fact. Clumps of cells just don’t do the things you can see with your own eyes on an ultrasound.
When abortion on demand was imposed by judicial fiat in America, ultrasounds were rare. Now, they are common — it’s not unheard of for some women to get them every week or two. As America has moved culturally to the left in many areas, key indicators show that the millenial generation is growing more pro-life. This technology has a lot to do with it.
These machines will do more for the cause of life in the next 20 years than any politician will.
Tagged: pro life ultrasounds
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Speaking at Mobile Monday DC
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 15th, 2007 12:51 pmIf you’re in D.C., feel free to stop by Mobile Monday DC tonight, where I’ll be talking a bit about text messaging in the ‘06 cycle. Event info is here.
Tagged: announcements sms
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A Case Study of “Obama for America”
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 15th, 2007 12:05 pmContinuing the online fundraising discussion (raging here), let’s take a closer look at Obama for America, a PAC that is urging Barack Obama to run and driving through ActBlue’s presidential draft funds (maligned here).
How are they doing on that marquee feature? They’ve raised $1,515.08 from a total of 31 donors for an average contribution of $48.87.
That’s not very impressive for a site with a decent-sized Blogad buy behind it, one which stirred some buzz with rumors that this was actually the work of operatives associated with Senator Obama. (That’s since been cleared up.) The average contribution is also low. John Edwards’ presidential account has an average contribution of $146.95. It goes to my point that people want to give to contribute to their candidate directly, and when they do give to a draft fund, they commit a lot less.
Contrast this with other grassroots efforts for Obama. RunObama.com has collected 17,129 petition signatures urging Obama to run. Draft Obama also has a petition going. Students for Barack Obama on Facebook has 31,574 members.
I can guarantee you that 50,000 names of ID’d supporters — even if the campaign doesn’t get access to them — will be far more valuable than the seed money generated through ActBlue or the PAC.
Tagged: actblue barack obama online fundraising
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Matt Lewis Now Blogging at Townhall
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 13th, 2007 11:10 pmThis one deserves more than a little shout-out on the side.
Matt Lewis, one of the blogosphere’s sharpest observers of the political strategy and tactics, has started blogging for our friends over at Townhall, officially joining the Hugh, Mary Katharine and Dean Show.
Go read him now. You’ll be smarter for it.
Tagged: matt lewis
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