Is Obama Already Running for 2012?
by Patrick Ruffini :: February 7th, 2007 5:14 pmUPDATE: A campaign lawyer alerts me to the fact that all general money would have to be refunded in the event of a primary loss.
The Hotline reports that Barack Obama is turning down Federal funds both for the primary and the general.
This raises some eyebrows. The decision to turn down primary matching funds is entirely expected… but wasn’t Hillary the only Democrat expected to take the unprecedented step of opting out in the general? Obama is likely to be a formidable fundraiser, but he is untested on the national stage. Opting out in the general is a bold gamble, a clear signal to the finance community that “I can take her.”
Unless…
What if at the end of an unsuccessful primary run in 2008, Obama has $20-30 million sitting in his general election account? Sure, he won’t actively solicit for it, but most people who can afford to write $2,300 checks can just as easily write a $4,600 one and a good many of them will do so. If I’m not mistaken, that money could be transferred to a future Presidential run. Combined with his Senate account, he could go into the next election with $40 million. That’s enough to scare off serious competition, particularly on the Democratic side where $40 million can be the ball game.
And is this the new strategy for dark horses who’ll never get the nomination? If the inevitable happens and you lose, you’ll have a few million COH going stored away for a future run for public office. And if lightning does strike, assume that the rally-round-the-flag effect will be enough to net you $80 million in the general?
If so, this takes the Hillary’s stockpiling strategy from 2006 to a whole new level… consciously building a warchest for four or eight years by running as a longshot now.
Tagged: 2008 
barack obama campaign finance hillary clinton strategy
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you know Patrick, I have a theory about all of these theories. None of them amount to anything unless you have facts to back up the speculation. I don’t really care what Barack does in 2012. If a Democrat like Hillary wins in 2008, she will be running for re-election in 2012, not Barack. I believe he is a flash in the pan, a Joe Biden, only slightly older than Biden was when he started his descent.Now here is a prediction for you. Bill Frist will run for governor of TN in 2010 - he will lose - he will run again in 2014 and win and then run for President in 2016 (he will only be 64) now that’s speculation with no facts to back it up.