The Feb. 5th National Primary
by Patrick Ruffini :: February 13th, 2007 9:42 amNow New York is thinking about moving up to February 5. So, California, New York, Florida, and New Jersey could all be on the same day. Don’t be surprised to see more states bandwagoning towards the first Tuesday in February.
One of the proposals regularly bandied about by primary reformers is a national primary. It sounds like they might actually get that this time. In fact, this is a very compressed version of the schedule the Democrats had in 2000, with only Iowa and New Hampshire preceding Super Tuesday.
This is a double-edged sword for Iowa and New Hampshire. A truly remarkable result in either of these states could jumble the playing field for February 5th. The catch is that the result would truly have to be a surprise. Someone doing slightly better or worse than expectations won’t be enough to create a big enough earned media wave to fundamentally change the outcome on February 5th, where candidates with the ability to organize and buy TV time in the big states are naturally favored.
Tagged: 2008 
primary schedule
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I agree with Patrick about too many states holding their primary so close. It would be very difficult for an underdog candidate to come from behind after they won in Iowa or New Hampshire. But the other point is that some people might wait until January 2008 to make a donation IF the person they really wanted did well.
Front loaded primaries also prevent the public from selecting a candidate who is more seasoned. But I guess since the 2008 race started back in January 2005 with the polls, the public has been witnessing the current race for the White House for a long time.
The big states are expensive to run in. But if the voters want a presidential candidate to raise $100 million in order to run the 2008 race, they might get their wish.
Debbie, I’m still undecided on which Republican candidate I will support. I was (and am) a strong supporter of Senator Frist, but it seems unlikely that he will change his mind, so I am really looking for the right candidate. I know it won’t be McCain or Giuliani, and I doubt that it will be Romney. Right now I am leaning toward Huckabee only because I suspect that is where Senator Frist will ultimately end up, but I am open to Condie running. She would be a great candidate.
Ginny: What’s the big deal about Frist? He didn’t seem much of a leader in the Senate; what do you like about him?
Ginny, thanks for viewing Condi as your possible second choice.
With George Allen and Bill Frist out of the race, I hope others will see that Condi is a viable leader.
She stands strong on guns rights, so the NRA and Ducks Unlimited are likely supporters for her as well.
We also know that she is strong on foreign policy, and DC is BUZZING with her efforts to get the N Korea issue handled without Cheney. As much as Cheney is important as VP, I think he has been sidelined for a while until the Scooter Libby thing is cleared up.
Right now Condi is in the Middle East and trying to bring 2 leaders into resolving the conflict in Israel and the Palestinan areas.
This is STATESCRAFT, showing her strength in diplomacy now.
She is not trying to run for president, but I believe Republicans admire her for standing side-by-side with OUR president rather than trying to undermine him to grab his job.
Thanks for making my day.
There might be a BIG surprise when the people are given their chance to show who they want to be their GOP candidate. It just might be Condi Rice. Why do I say that? In the past 2 years, various polls have been taken showing strong support for her. She has the foreign policy experience which is mentioned as lacking for Obama.
USA Today/Gallup poll, Feb. 13, reported another viewpoint which is very interesting to Condi Rice supporters.
94% would vote for a qualified African-American
88% would vote for a qualified nominee who is a woman
Right now, our Secretary of State is part of the powerful TRIAD of the White House (Bush, Cheney, Condi) and she is laying the foundation for some international success in hot spots like N Korea as well as the upcoming Peace Conference with Israel and the Palestinian territory.
In my opinion, Shuttle Diplomacy will show her strength and that she has the patience to work with world leaders to settle conflicts in a peaceful way.
By the way, the Feb 14 Presidential press conference used the terms by Condi in regards to Iraq:
Clear, Hold, Build
She is also correct to request some of the military to fill in for a few of the posts at the State Department.
Afterall, Rumsfeld was the key voice in placing the Pentagon in charge of the post-war action. Now Condi is trying to bring the State Department into the Marshall Plan phase of assisting Iraq.