Rudy Out to a Big Lead?
by Patrick Ruffini :: February 17th, 2007 9:32 pm CBS News is out with another poll on the Republican nomination that shows Rudy Giuliani, whose campaign is a client, solidly in front with a 50-2129% lead in a two man race with John McCain. [Corrected. The story says 21, but the PDF says 29. -ed.]
This is in line with other recent polling showing a significant shift towards the Mayor. USA Today / Gallup had it at 40-26 in a multicandidate field, Rasmussen 32-18, and Fox News at 56-31 for the two-man.
What to make of these numbers? I see several vectors converging on a single point: the low-key coverage of Giuliani over the past year, combined with the whisper campaign that he wouldn’t run, had artificially depressed his earlier numbers. The polls are now catching up with the reality that the Mayor is a fully-fledged candidate.
Consider:
- This tidbit reported on Race42008 earlier this month has turned out to be significant: “Likely Republican primary voters registered as Republicans in New Hampshire are less apt to say they would vote for Rudy Giuliani because he has not declared that he will be a candidate.”
- Why did McCain dominate in this “top-of-mind” survey last year (i.e. asking an open-ended question about who the next President should be) but narrowly lose in head-to-head matchups? Because overwhelmingly, Republicans thought of McCain as more of a candidate than Giuliani. That has now changed.
- I do think these data points from 2000 mean something. George W. Bush was always thought of as the frontrunner in 2000, but his lead increased significantly after he became a declared candidate and Americans saw him as such.
Gannett #quot;Mood of America#quot; Poll, January 1999
George W. Bush 39%
Elizabeth Dole 22%
Jack Kemp 8%
Dan Quayle 6%
Steve Forbes 5%Republican Leadership Poll, February 1999
George W. Bush 40%
Elizabeth Dole 27%
Dan Quayle 9%
Steve Forbes 6%
John McCain 3%*** March 1999: Bush forms exploratory committee.
Research 2000 Poll, May 1999
George W. Bush 41%
Elizabeth Dole 19%
John McCain 12%
Dan Quayle 9%
Pat Buchanan 4%Washington Post Poll, June 1999
George W. Bush 49%
Elizabeth Dole 20%
Pat Buchanan 5%
John McCain 5%
Dan Quayle 4%*** June 1999: Bush declares.
Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications Poll, August 1999
George W. Bush 59%
Elizabeth Dole 12%
John McCain 6%
Steve Forbes 5%
Dan Quayle 4%
These 2000 numbers remind us that it’s still very early and that we’ll probably see 8 or 9 big momentum shifts before this is over. Unlike 2000, there are three well-established candidates who could raise $100 million or more. Few saw John McCain coming at this point in 2000 cycle; because of his maverick insurgency, he was able to move the numbers significantly.
All that said, the commentariat’s widespread belief that “it’s all downhill after Rudy announces” seems not to be operational.
Tagged: 2008 
john mccain polls rudy giuliani
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If Rudy is the nominee millions of Christians will stay home. Same for McLame. Romney has no chance, the media will destroy him.
Choices this cycle: McCain, Rudy, Hillary, Edwards, and Obama, with Barry Obama (the name he used for many years) getting the VP nod. It’s a done deal on the Dem side.
Only question is, which liberal Republican will carry the GOP banner?
Patrick, if you want your candidate taken seriously by the Right, you and he have a lot of explaining to do.
Polls are a snapshot of today, not next year. A lot can happen and it is early, I agree. On the other hand, by various people mentioning that Secretary of State Condi Rice should run and by a few adding her name to their polls, it does keep up the viewpoint that she could become an alternative for 2008.
In New Hampshire, August 2006:
a poll at a Republican picnic gave Condi 26% of the support and McCain tied with her at 26%. Rudy at that time was 14%.
A Marist poll back in Sept 2006:
Rudy 23%
Condi 20%
McCain 15%
Rasmussen polled 1,050 Republicans in 2006:
Rudy 24%
Condi 18%
McCain 17%
so clearly, people are watching our Secretary of State handle foreign affairs and international issues. She is seen a full partner with President Bush to get work done and to help set policy for international relations. This is a REAL issue for 2008, and she is being groomed for higher office.
If she decided to run, would anyone be surprised?
She has earned the admiration and respect of many people in our nation and they will be celebrating when she is on the ticket for 2008.
It is prefered as president, and some also say she would be perfect for VP. We shall see.
Rudy is the best hope for the GOP winnng in ‘08. McCain has lost the tracking power he had in 2000, and many of his earlier supporters will back off because of his Iraq stance, even though it is similar to Giulliani’s. Mitt Romney is already being marginalized by the left as too conservative and by the the left and right as a flip flopper. Sadly, his religious choice may hurt him among some Evangelicals.
Rudy’s hurdle is the nomination, which may be tough. The possible fall out is some of the hard right of the party breaking away from the GOP.
Jeff
[…] When you put the two front-runners on the Republican side head-to-head, it appears that Rudy is trouncing McCain. This is a pretty early momentum shift in the direction of America’s mayor. Is it disenchantment with McCain or love of Rudy? Time will answer that question. From Patrick Ruffini and with more analysis at his place… CBS News is out with another poll on the Republican nomination that shows Rudy Giuliani, whose campaign is a client, solidly in front with a 50-29% lead in a two man race with John McCain. [Corrected. The story says 21, but the PDF says 29.] […]
[…] Rudy leads McCain. […]
[…] Patrick Ruffini notes the similarities between Dubya’s jump in the polls in 2000 after he had declared as a candidate to Rudy’s. by Kavon W. Nikrad @ 9:58 pm. Filed under Poll Watch [Trackback URL] [link] Trackback URL for this post: http://race42008.com/2007/02/17/poll-alert-cbs-news-republican-primary/trackback/ […]
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