Rudy Out to a Big Lead?
by Patrick Ruffini :: February 17th, 2007 9:32 pm CBS News is out with another poll on the Republican nomination that shows Rudy Giuliani, whose campaign is a client, solidly in front with a 50-2129% lead in a two man race with John McCain. [Corrected. The story says 21, but the PDF says 29. -ed.]
This is in line with other recent polling showing a significant shift towards the Mayor. USA Today / Gallup had it at 40-26 in a multicandidate field, Rasmussen 32-18, and Fox News at 56-31 for the two-man.
What to make of these numbers? I see several vectors converging on a single point: the low-key coverage of Giuliani over the past year, combined with the whisper campaign that he wouldn’t run, had artificially depressed his earlier numbers. The polls are now catching up with the reality that the Mayor is a fully-fledged candidate.
Consider:
- This tidbit reported on Race42008 earlier this month has turned out to be significant: “Likely Republican primary voters registered as Republicans in New Hampshire are less apt to say they would vote for Rudy Giuliani because he has not declared that he will be a candidate.”
- Why did McCain dominate in this “top-of-mind” survey last year (i.e. asking an open-ended question about who the next President should be) but narrowly lose in head-to-head matchups? Because overwhelmingly, Republicans thought of McCain as more of a candidate than Giuliani. That has now changed.
- I do think these data points from 2000 mean something. George W. Bush was always thought of as the frontrunner in 2000, but his lead increased significantly after he became a declared candidate and Americans saw him as such.
Gannett #quot;Mood of America#quot; Poll, January 1999
George W. Bush 39%
Elizabeth Dole 22%
Jack Kemp 8%
Dan Quayle 6%
Steve Forbes 5%Republican Leadership Poll, February 1999
George W. Bush 40%
Elizabeth Dole 27%
Dan Quayle 9%
Steve Forbes 6%
John McCain 3%*** March 1999: Bush forms exploratory committee.
Research 2000 Poll, May 1999
George W. Bush 41%
Elizabeth Dole 19%
John McCain 12%
Dan Quayle 9%
Pat Buchanan 4%Washington Post Poll, June 1999
George W. Bush 49%
Elizabeth Dole 20%
Pat Buchanan 5%
John McCain 5%
Dan Quayle 4%*** June 1999: Bush declares.
Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications Poll, August 1999
George W. Bush 59%
Elizabeth Dole 12%
John McCain 6%
Steve Forbes 5%
Dan Quayle 4%
These 2000 numbers remind us that it’s still very early and that we’ll probably see 8 or 9 big momentum shifts before this is over. Unlike 2000, there are three well-established candidates who could raise $100 million or more. Few saw John McCain coming at this point in 2000 cycle; because of his maverick insurgency, he was able to move the numbers significantly.
All that said, the commentariat’s widespread belief that “it’s all downhill after Rudy announces” seems not to be operational.
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Tagged: 2008 
john mccain polls rudy giuliani
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