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February, 2007 Archive

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The Bias Towards Democrat Primaries

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 11th, 2007 12:37 pm

Watching MTP this morning, it seems fairly apparent to me that the Democratic nomination fight will eat up two thirds or more of the media’s 2008 coverage over the next year. This despite the fact that the outcome of the Republican nomination seems to be more in doubt than the Democratic one, and the GOP has no shortage of accomplished national figures running.

This is a way for the media to show its bias without being ideological. They will simply deign Hillary vs. Obama vs. Edwards to be more newsworthy, and go from there. This is because the media approaches Democratic primaries more as participants than as spectators. Coaxing Hillary to renounce her pro-war vote, as happened on the roundtable this morning, is the perfect example of this phenomenon in action.

I am trying to fully game out the implications of this, but don’t be surprised to see these storylines emerge. First, the Democrats will be seen as generating more grassroots energy than the Republicans, whose voters will be framed as subdued and unmotivated. The story on Obama’s crowds is just the beginning. The media will overstate Democratic enthusiasm because they think Democratic primaries are more interesting.

And second: The Democratic nominee will be portrayed as the heroic victor in an epic saga that pitted the “first” woman and minority candidates against each other, with a proven smooth-talker thrown in the mix.

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Barack Launches

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 10th, 2007 3:27 pm

It’s all Obamamania all the time hereabouts.

David All likes Barack Obama’s website better than the old one; I actually thought their old site did the job of launching the campaign quite nicely. I agree that the site they launched today is nicely done, a far cry from the busy smorgasbord that is John Edwards’.

Joe Rospars, formerly of the DNC and Blue State Digital is leading their eCampaign, though the company itself is a software provider to numerous campaigns, working for Tom Vilsack and Chris Dodd.

The most outwardly intriguing feature of the site is My.BarackObama.com, an activism and networking suite which is a spin off the DNC’s PartyBuilder. The tool is pretty fully-featured, but the interface is too corporate-dashboardy for my tastes. A campaign blog is a place to show some grassroots flair (like the Dean campaign did) but this one looks like direct output from a MySQL database.

As of 3 p.m. EST, the site — particularly the MyBarack area — seems to be having trouble holding up to the crush of visitors.

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Is Obama Already Running for 2012?

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 7th, 2007 5:14 pm

UPDATE: A campaign lawyer alerts me to the fact that all general money would have to be refunded in the event of a primary loss.

The Hotline reports that Barack Obama is turning down Federal funds both for the primary and the general.

This raises some eyebrows. The decision to turn down primary matching funds is entirely expected… but wasn’t Hillary the only Democrat expected to take the unprecedented step of opting out in the general? Obama is likely to be a formidable fundraiser, but he is untested on the national stage. Opting out in the general is a bold gamble, a clear signal to the finance community that “I can take her.”

Unless…

What if at the end of an unsuccessful primary run in 2008, Obama has $20-30 million sitting in his general election account? Sure, he won’t actively solicit for it, but most people who can afford to write $2,300 checks can just as easily write a $4,600 one and a good many of them will do so. If I’m not mistaken, that money could be transferred to a future Presidential run. Combined with his Senate account, he could go into the next election with $40 million. That’s enough to scare off serious competition, particularly on the Democratic side where $40 million can be the ball game.

And is this the new strategy for dark horses who’ll never get the nomination? If the inevitable happens and you lose, you’ll have a few million COH going stored away for a future run for public office. And if lightning does strike, assume that the rally-round-the-flag effect will be enough to net you $80 million in the general?

If so, this takes the Hillary’s stockpiling strategy from 2006 to a whole new level… consciously building a warchest for four or eight years by running as a longshot now.

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Video: Rudy in S.C.

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 4th, 2007 5:12 pm

The Mayor is interviewed by SCHotline.com:

Disclosure…

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Capt. Patriquin’s PowerPoint for Iraq

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 3rd, 2007 2:18 am

Before his death, the late Capt. Travis Patriquin produced a much-circulated slideshow showing how to win in Al-Anbar. Mary Katharine Ham has YouTubeized it into the tribute you see above.

What I find incredibly frustrating about the debate over Iraq is that we rarely ever hear about strategies and solutions. Right now, in the U.S. Senate, they are having a meaningless debate over a nonbinding resolution that will never have the force of law. Nonsense terms like “benchmarks” and “phased redeployment” are bandied about in a massive game of Beltway CYA. Agree or disagree with it, what you see in this video is a clear plan of action. That’s what this discussion needs — not nonbinding anything.

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I Don’t Promote Overclocked Enough

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 3rd, 2007 12:40 am

What about those pesky social bookmarking icons on the bottom of every post hereabouts? I provide some metrics. Q. What does it take to set up e-mail for a new small business involving a mobile device and legacy Gmail accounts up the wazoo? A. Lots of banging your head against a wall. Plus, why those Snap preview icons are a bad idea, and I peg the total RSS reading universe in the United States at 3.5 million.

Subscribe to Overclocked as I try and find some original answers to some of today’s burning tech issues.

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On Not Crossing Bright Red Lines

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 2nd, 2007 10:41 pm

A couple of days ago I was talking to a prominent conservative blogger in Washington. We were talking about any guilt-by-association issues caused by campaigns hiring bloggers. I tended to think these were a thing of the past; reporters have better things to do than to stalk through months-old archives for slightly off-key quotes made prior to a blogger joining a campaign.

No less than 24 hours later, I get to eat my words.

I do think the case of John Edwards official blogger Amanda Marcotte is the exception that proves the rule, however. Here’s what she wrote, now down the memory hole:

Naturally, my flight out of Atlanta has been delayed. Let’s hope it takes off when they say it will so I don’t miss my connecting flight home.

In the meantime, I’ve been sort of casually listening to CNN blaring throughout the waiting area and good f****** god is that channel pure evil. For awhile, I had to listen to how the poor dear lacrosse players at Duke are being persecuted just because they held someone down and f***** her against her will—not rape, of course, because the charges have been thrown out. Can’t a few white boys sexually assault a black woman anymore without people getting all wound up about it? So unfair.

That’s the kind of raw, profanity-laced screed you’re more apt to find in the diaries at Daily Kos than you are from a Presidential campaign blogger. Pandagon especially has been been known for this stuff for a long time.

I think it’s perfectly fine for a blogger to sound some discordant notes and then be hired by a campaign. That’s not what this is about. Had Amanda Marcotte written a bad thing or two about John Edwards a couple of months ago, this wouldn’t have been a story.

It’s crossing Bright Red Lines that’s the problem. It’s the profanity. It’s losing control of your logical faculties. How do we know when someone crosses a Bright Red Line? We know it when we see it. We knew it when Kos totally lost control and said “screw them.” It’s the juicy stuff. Kos can call for defeat in Iraq all he wants and people won’t call him on it because they’ve been desensitized to it. It’s things said in bad taste that get you in trouble — the same kinds of things that would cause the room to go silent if you were to say them at a party.

And this is not the oppressive standards of campaign world crashing down and ruining the blogosphere. If you’re going on a job interview, it’s a good bet that your prospective boss is going to Google you, troll your Facebook and MySpace profiles, wade through your Flickr album. Stuff like this doesn’t help, whether you’re going out for a job on a campaign or at the local bank.

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Is Barack Losing the Web War?

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 1st, 2007 7:00 pm

That’s what Howard Fineman asks. And the answer is no.

Look at Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign Web site. Not much going on there: no blogs, no video, no trail reports, no media-rich mechanics for involving people. What gives? Robert Gibbs, his communications director, tells me that all of that will change on Feb. 10—the day on which Obama is expected to formally declare his candidacy with a speech in Springfield, Ill. (I’m hoping he takes the Abe Lincoln thing all the way: a long black coat, a stovepipe hat and a speech of no more than 250 words.)

It’s true that Obama’s site is relatively feature-free. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that he was the only Democrat to the e-announcement thing right. Not just in his announcement video, but in putting up a bio video to give voters a sense of who he is. (No Flickr page or blog post can do that quite as well as video.) The Brightcove stat that jumps out at me is the fact that 48% of viewers sat through the nearly 6-minute video. Most Hollywood movie trailers on Brightcove fall-off to those levels at 1:30.

I polled my readers on which Dem they thought had the best web site. Unsurprisingly, Edwards leads the pack, with 34%, followed by Hillary at 26%, and Obama at 20%. People like content-heaviness and features, and Hillary’s shot up after her announcement because she provided this. But I admire the Obama team’s clarity and simplicity and in communicating about him, not loading down the site with bells and whistles that detract from the e-mail signups and donations that need to occur as the campaign’s first order of business.

David All makes a couple of key observations here. One on frequency of visits:

But what’s the hook that brings me back once, twice, three times a day? What are you doing everyday to keep me intrigued by Obamamania?

The dirty little secret of political websites, even fully-featured ones like Edwards’, is that very few people return… unless you hook them in as a subscriber via e-mail, RSS, or SMS. Generally, what we sacrifice in depth we make up for in mass. When I looked at the Bush-Cheney stats at the end of the campaign, I was floored by the sheer mass of people we reached. The catch is that most never returned. Hence the importance Obama is placing on collecting e-mail addresses to get people to come back.

David also writes,

The only problem with relying solely on traffic rankings is that a view from an influential like Howard Fineman or Seth Godin or John Fund v. a page view from John Doe in Chicago carry the exact same weight. However, they clearly do not.

Ah, the age old question! What matters more, quality or quantity?

If you’re selling a high-end consumer product or trying to explain a complex policy issue, then clearly the visit from Seth Godin counts more. But remember the end goal us politicos have in mind: 50% plus one. We need mass. If getting every voter to your web site every day is the equivalent of landing on the moon, a million-plus Drudgelanche is still low Earth orbit. And if you’re doing nothing more than attracting a few thousand technopolitical influentials, you’re dusting crops.

Campaigns need a strategy for influentials that they deliver through well-targeted niche media. But unlike most enterprises, they need to reach an absolute majority at the end of the day. And your margin in those races is not the influentials, but the hardest-to-reach voters of all — independents who only think about politics once every four years. Let’s have a conversation about how to reach them online.

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Patrick Ruffini   Patrick Ruffini is an online political strategist, blogger, and wearer of many hats. More...


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