Get Well Tony
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 28th, 2007 11:14 pmWhite House Internet director David Almacy sends along an easy way for all of us to send best wishes to Tony Snow. Just go on over to WhiteHouse.gov to the “Get Well Tony” section to send him an email and let him know he’s in our thoughts and prayers.
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Tagged: tony snow 
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Wrapping Up the 1984 Saga
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 25th, 2007 10:41 amMy new Townhall column is up. This week, I look at the aftermath of the 1984 video, and how it signals a lasting shift in how we do politics.
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Phil de Vellis = John Mark Karr?
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 22nd, 2007 3:04 pmDid Phil de Vellis just cop to a “crime” he didn’t commit, or had only a minor part in committing, to advance his career (it’s working) or cover for the real perps?
Buckeye State Blog, a lefty Ohio outfit, is doubtful that de Vellis is the auteur of “Vote Different.” They have clashed in the past so there clearly is no love lost between the two:
Also, where was De Vellis’ “Big Sister” ad of the Brown campaign. Where’s that one piece that hinted at Phil’s creativity? Where is something - anything - that shows a high level of technical skill with video editing/manipulation. If you’re still looking, stop. I couldn’t find anything either. In fact, there’s nothing, I repeat NOTHING, from Phil’s work on that campaign (or any other work he’s done elsewhere that I’ve tracked down) that even leaves one to hope that he is capable of the pure genius that is “Big Sister”. I remain skeptical.
David All pays close attention and doesn’t buy it either:
I took a closer examination of the video today, and there’s one scene which really jumps out at me which leads me to believe that there could, in fact, be more to the story.
Watch the video again and look for this scene. Look how perfectly edited the series of videos are in the video. Now look at the admittedly amateur video which the Lamont folks made using this same idea. No one noticed those scenes.
This is precision editing. Not some kid, in his apartment, on a Sunday, with some editing equipment.
He’s referring to an early scene in the spot, where the drones are marching to Hillary video placed perfectly in a series of TV screens above. That shows a remarkable attention to detail in the production.
It also conflicts with ParkRidge47’s email to Micah Sifry, which clumsily claimed that the ad was a response to the David Geffen spat. Which happened on February 21st. And if so, that’s revealing, because it suggests “Vote Different” was in the works for two weeks or more. Chances are there’s more to de Vellis’ claim that it was done on his apartment on a Sunday afternoon.
I’m not a video editor. I don’t own a Mac or Final Cut Pro. But I’ve worked with video editors. And my strong sense is, like David’s, that there is no way this ad was thrown together in six hours. Maybe the cheap responses were, or the Lamont-Lieberman version was, but not this.
UPDATE: Bryan Preston sleuths it out, and his word is as conclusive as you’ll probably get on this. Conclusion: It could have been done in a day, if the editor knew exactly what he was doing and what the end product should look like.
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Edwards Out?
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 22nd, 2007 10:42 amIt looks like it. “At a minimum” his campaign is suspended because of a recurrence of his wife’s cancer.
Two days ago I wrote that the Edwards campaign was in trouble. But I certainly didn’t expect it would end this way.
This is an honorable decision to put his family before personal ambition. I’m sure I speak for all readers when I say our prayers are with the Edwards family.
UPDATE: He stays in.
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ParkRidge47 Unmasked
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 22nd, 2007 8:27 amAs about the entire Western world knows by now, ParkRidge47, creator of the paradigm-shifting “Vote Different” video, is Philip de Vellis, who until last night was employed by Blue State Digital, Sen. Obama’s web strategists.
The revelation makes sense on a variety of levels.
Just look at the narrative of the ad: Hillary’s “conversation” is really a monologue. That’s true, but it’s hardly the stuff of 1,000 GRPs. I’ve written about it. But before this video, it wasn’t a message that resonated anywhere beyond the technoconsultant class. Lo and behold, the video hailed from that select group.
Look at the closing screen with BarackObama.com, which was practically a dead giveaway that this came from someone with an interest in the Obama campaign. It was specifically designed to drive traffic to the Obama site. “BarackObama.com” is in the same typeface as the campaign logo. And it’s exactly how any Web consultant would want their client’s URL displayed at the end of an ad.
de Vellis’ video was brilliant. He has a bright future ahead of him. But the current rules of the game are such that he had to be dismissed.
Now to a more fundamental question: Was “Vote Different” too good to be true?
The short answer is yes. It tends to support the belief that “voter-generated content” is still not at the point where something this devastating can be organically produced by an independent actor. (Even the “macaca” video was taped by an opponent’s tracker, and first released to the Washington Post, not YouTube.) Sure, it’s possible that this could have been an amateur activist. But I doubt there was one amateur activist in the United States who was this obsessed with that particular message with the skills to produce something like this. That’s why people go into politics.
At the same time, let’s not kid ourselves. Professional political operatives and the online political class are slowly converging. I am on record as saying that in the closing days of the ‘04 election, guys like Geraghty, Jay Cost, and the RealClearPolitics team knew just as much about the state of the race as did I, a mid-level staffer in Bush-Cheney headquarters. Change a few slight things about where de Vellis sits, and this video can be seen in a very different light. This video wasn’t produced by an amateur, but the increasing viability of establishing oneself in the online political sphere makes it likely that future videos will be. And this unauthorized activity is certainly coming to have a decisive impact, per Fineman.
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ParkRidge47 Was Funded
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 21st, 2007 12:22 pmOver at TechPresident, Zack Exley comes to the rather definitive conclusion that the “Vote Different” ad (up to nearly 1.5 million views on YouTube — and nearly 2 million in its various iterations) was professionally commissioned by a high-level Obama supporter acting outside the campaign. Here’s his thinking:
But so far most of the discussion of the ad has put up a picture of an independent video person working at home on their Mac in their spare time. But that’s just not plausible. Such a character would be claiming his or her reward right now, boosting his or her career and having a great time doing the media rounds. And, also telling: the ad maker knew exactly what election law lines not to cross, stopping just short of express advocacy. Why didn’t the ad say, “Vote Obama”? So, when did independent YouTube video hackers get access to their own election law attorneys?
This was a funded project, involving lawyers and an ad agency or at the very least a professional video person who’s time is worth hundreds of dollars an hour.
There has been a lot of talk about how the Internet is about building community. That’s true, but I think the bigger story is how the Internet is empowering individuals to get involved in increasingly creative ways, for good or ill.
No campaign could have produced this. I don’t think David Geffen did either. It’s too subtle and under-produced by Hollywood standards. And that’s what makes it so deadly effective.
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On Second-Time Candidates
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 20th, 2007 11:42 pmIn his response to my Edwards post, Jim Geraghty ruminates on the nature of second-time candidates:
But I’ve been thinking about the value of experience in running for president. There’s a reason that most, though by no means all, of the successful bids for the nomination in both parties have had some experience in running before. (In fact, the first-timers who have won their party’s nomination often, though not always, ran in fields with no second-time campaigners.)
And yet all the second-time candidates in this field seem to be struggling. I wonder if this isn’t because something has fundamentally changed about campaigns today.
John Edwards has been running for President nonstop since January 2003. At some point, his being constantly exposed to the public as a striver or a loser has to take its toll. His run for VP was arguably even more of a double edged sword, serving on a losing ticket in the process of boosting his name ID from 60 to 90%.
When Ronald Reagan ran for the nomination in 1976 and 1980, he announced in November of 1975 and 1979 respectively. He was not a candidate for three years and three months until his second successful run. He enjoyed a consistent level of exposure through his radio commentaries, but that somehow seems different than trolling for votes in Iowa fresh off the last election.
This year, it’s the first-time candidates who seem to have the momentum. To some extent, there seems to be a crowding out of the second-time candidates who occupy much of the same market space. (Just look at Obama vs. Edwards on the Dem side.) I do think the first-time candidates this time are more skilled than in normal years. (Giuliani, Obama, and Romney are no pushovers.) But I also think something about the almost seamless transition from election cycle to election cycle is making people yearn for fresher candidates.
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A Prediction About John Edwards
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 20th, 2007 12:11 amHe isn’t going anywhere.
Look at ActBlue, his fundraising provider. He’s raised $1,143,954 online as of this writing. Given the recent tendency of populist Democrat candidates to raise 40% or more of their money online, what does that say about Edwards’ finances?
Edwards had a phenomenal Q1 in 2003, and there is a certain expectation of a repeat performance. But he was a different type of candidate back then. Four years ago, he took Fred Baron’s private jet from airplane hangar to airplane hangar, raising dough from trial lawyers without even leaving the tarmac. Is Edwards as closely identified with trial lawyers this time with his newfound populist schtick? Isn’t it possible this establishment constituency has better alternatives this time in Hillary and Obama?
Edwards is also garnering a lot of his publicity by grasping desperately at headlines, be it Ann Coulter’s outburst or the Fox News Nevada debate. (This is borne out by his Alexa numbers.) He is not making news of his own. The last time the story was about him was the Marcotte/McEwan fiasco. Not good.
Obama is stealing Edwards’ oxygen. Breck is no longer the sunny optimist in the race.
So does Edwards camp out in Iowa where he has traditionally played well? That’s only sustainable if the trendlines are positive; at least as of now, it’s looking like he won’t have a warchest to surprise anyone in the Caucuses like he did in ‘04.
But it’s a long campaign and HillaryObama could stumble yadda yadda yadda…
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A Google Earth Hack for Politics
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 17th, 2007 10:39 pm
Mike Krempasky thinks that Lifehacker will get my attention with this Google Earth/census data mashup.
As usual, he’s right.
Of course, I was mashing up Google Earth (then Keyhole) and election data back in 2003, but the clear value proposition is bringing demography to the masses. Wait until someone builds precinct layers on top of this.
In no sense did we need Google Earth when it came onto the scene. Only the real geeks were building 3D models of this stuff before. With Google Earth you can scale Everest virtually, well, just because. It’s adding a layer of play to geospatial analysis.
The national parties already have very advanced models and probably wouldn’t need something like this. Their voter targeting is dictated by dispassionate databases — as it should be. But I do think that adding a layer of play could help get the long tail campaigns (the Congressionals on down) on board with the microtargeting program.
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Flashback: Time’s 1993 Reagan Cover
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 16th, 2007 9:01 am
This is not the first time Time magazine has tried to proclaim the death of conservatism using a Photoshopped cover of Ronald Reagan.
The August 16, 1993 Time cover:
I’ll have much more on this in my column tomorrow.
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