A Prediction About John Edwards

by Patrick Ruffini :: March 20th, 2007 12:11 am

He isn’t going anywhere.

Look at ActBlue, his fundraising provider. He’s raised $1,143,954 online as of this writing. Given the recent tendency of populist Democrat candidates to raise 40% or more of their money online, what does that say about Edwards’ finances?

Edwards had a phenomenal Q1 in 2003, and there is a certain expectation of a repeat performance. But he was a different type of candidate back then. Four years ago, he took Fred Baron’s private jet from airplane hangar to airplane hangar, raising dough from trial lawyers without even leaving the tarmac. Is Edwards as closely identified with trial lawyers this time with his newfound populist schtick? Isn’t it possible this establishment constituency has better alternatives this time in Hillary and Obama?

Edwards is also garnering a lot of his publicity by grasping desperately at headlines, be it Ann Coulter’s outburst or the Fox News Nevada debate. (This is borne out by his Alexa numbers.) He is not making news of his own. The last time the story was about him was the Marcotte/McEwan fiasco. Not good.

Obama is stealing Edwards’ oxygen. Breck is no longer the sunny optimist in the race.

So does Edwards camp out in Iowa where he has traditionally played well? That’s only sustainable if the trendlines are positive; at least as of now, it’s looking like he won’t have a warchest to surprise anyone in the Caucuses like he did in ‘04.

But it’s a long campaign and HillaryObama could stumble yadda yadda yadda…

Tagged: fundraising john edwards

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Patrick Ruffini :: Edwards Out? says:
[…] Two days ago I wrote that the Edwards campaign was in trouble. But I certainly didn’t expect it would end this way. […]
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Patrick Ruffini :: Edwards Has Only Raised $6 Million says:
[…] Now, Edwards has been running a frugal campaign and his COH will probably rival that of the relatively free-spending Republican frontrunners, but I’m very close to reverting to my old position on Edwards: he’s DOA. […]
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