Q1 Numbers: The Democrats
by Patrick Ruffini :: April 1st, 2007 7:27 pmThe Democrat Big Three have reported their bottom line numbers for the quarter. What do they mean? Let’s run them down.
#1: Hillary Clinton - $26 million - Less than expected
I was under the impression that this was a Big Dog & Terry production. If so, then I’m not entirely impressed. This number was on the low side of expectations, and she really needed to beat Barack Obama by more than $4 million. The headlines about Bill doing more than a dozen solo fundraisers didn’t help with the expectations game. Her cleaning out the Senate account to the tune of $10 million gives her some breathing room, but remember when people were whispering about her winding up with $40 million cash-on-hand from 2006? Senator Clinton has the deepest network of contacts in Democratic politics, a huge direct mail program, and a decent-sized email list from three campaigns. But, as Marc Ambinder notes, candidates with that kind of institutional support tend to peak in the first quarter. She also has the largest staff; watch her burn rate when the numbers come up on 4/15.
#2: Barack Obama - $22 million - As expected
This is a huge number for Obama, but mostly it looks good because of Clinton’s number. The fact is that you can’t steal away high-profile FOB’s like Geffen and Spielberg, have $2M+ New York and L.A. events and expect to benefit from low expectations. Posting the total number of donors on his Web site was final confirmation that he would have a $20-25M quarter, and it’s indicative of the fact that he probably did $8-10M in low-dollar alone. Obama is running a very effective nontraditional campaign (the kind which doesn’t usually peak till Q3 or Q4) and it was enough to (nearly) keep pace with the Bill & Terry machine. Now he has to avoid becoming the flavor of the month.
#3: John Edwards - $14 million - More than expected
Days before the Elizabeth Edwards announcement, I had all but written Edwards off based in part on his online fundraising numbers. Those numbers have since more than doubled, rising by $1.5 - 2 million. It’s clear that Edwards has retained a vast network of traditional donors that belies his recent focus on becoming a labor/netroots darling (24 social networks… oy). Considering the breathless Hillary/Barack coverage over the last two months, Edwards has officially regained the mantle of sleeper.
Tagged: barack obama 
fundraising hillary clinton john edwards
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I don’t think anyone expected Clinton to raise $40 million and those who said it were just trying to get out the hype. I think her numbers were right where most people expected it to be. I won’t comment on Obama’s numbers considering there is no official word yet, but getting $20-25 million is also expected. As for Edwards, it is not more than expected. The Edwards camp really played down their expectations hoping to raise more than they did in 2003, but we all knew he will double it. If anything, I will say the big three did just what was expected of them.
Definitely WAY too close for Hillary’s comfort. It will be bery interesting to see how these numbers look next time aroun - if Hillary peaks early like you said she might, then it might be time for the GOP to start preparing to face Senator Obama next November.
Either way, neither is going to beat Giuliani.
[…] I have my own perspective on this issue, having led the RNC’s Internet operations in 2006 and now serving as an outside advisor to one of the GOP campaigns (Rudy Giuliani). And as someone who monitors trends on this daily (in my post last Sunday, I actually expected Obama’s Internet number to be higher), I think much of the commentary on this is missing the point. […]