Early State Whiplash
by Patrick Ruffini :: June 21st, 2007 10:50 amAbout a month ago, the McCain campaign had a legitimate argument that they were ahead or polling strong in the early-voting states. Today, that’s no longer the case. In fact, McCain today is weaker in the early states than he is nationally.
That shock South Carolina poll gave us a taste of it. Now he’s at 6% in Iowa. And 11% in Florida. Nationally, he’s still at 15%, but falling.
This gives us a sense of the fickleness of basing your campaign on early state polling. The early states are more sensitive to wild swings in opinion because the voters there are paying attention. If your momentum is sagging, you’ll see it in the early state polls soon enough. Which is why McCain went from first to fourth in many of these polls.Eventually, the rest of the country follows.
Top dog status in early states is a moving target, much more so than national polls.That’s why it’s way to soon to tell who will have the momentum there come January. Mitt Romney’s first place position in Iowa and New Hampshire was attained with relative ease, but it can also be lost just as easily. What we do know from history is that the early states won’t vote for candidates with falling momentum. Early states may sometimes be ahead of their time, rewarding surging niche candidates who fail elsewhere, but they are seldom behind it.
Tagged: florida 
iowa john mccain south carolina
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