Ron Paul Will Place Second at Ames
by Patrick Ruffini :: July 18th, 2007 1:26 amYou heard it here first.
He leads the second tier in cash-on-hand. He was able to get 1,200 people out to the Hy-Vee (has any candidate done something that big on their own, not at an RPI event?). His home base in Texas isn’t that far of a drive, and his people are motivated enough to come in from out of state for him. And he’s making a big push on his Web site, which for all intents and purposes, is his campaign.
Romney, given his dominant position organizationally in Iowa, should still win. Even with the rest of the top tier not participating, he won’t be able to let his guard down, lest he be ambushed by one of the second tier. Should Romney underperform against someone not even playing at Ames, or against someone not taken seriously, that’s a blow to his Iowa inevitability.
Does Paul placing a close second make the straw poll and its winner into a laughingstock? Do benched McCain or Giuliani supporters direct people to vote for Paul to ensure that outcome? Or does this portend something bigger? I see that Ron Paul is up to 3% in the Gallup poll, above Huckabee and Brownback. He won’t come close to winning, but can he aggregate whatever Bilderburger and Trilateral Commission-phobic votes there are in his corner, in the same way that Lyndon LaRouche could get 15% in a Democratic primary against Bill Clinton?
And what’s happened to Huckabee and Brownback? Conn Carroll and I got into a lengthy “What about Huckabee?” discussion on BloggingHeads.tv. Intellectually, the Huckabee campaign seemed to make sense in the context of the standard playbook of GOP campaigns. With no Country-Western candidates and no authentic pro-lifers in the race, and with his personal connection to the pastors, he has/had a chance to break out in Iowa. Where this theory breaks down is that the interest groups may not matter so much in GOP politics anymore. What matters is going to your base directly, which only Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, and maybe Mitt Romney are doing. Can Huckabee or Brownback be carried by the church lists, or is the drawn out calendar and the Internet helping Evangelicals to make their own independent assessments (which is why Rudy isn’t getting killed, BTW)?
Tagged: ames 
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“I see that Ron Paul is up to 3% in the Gallup poll, above Huckabee and Brownback. He won’t come close to winning, but can he aggregate whatever Bilderburger and Trilateral Commission-phobic votes there are in his corner, in the same way that Lyndon LaRouche could get 15% in a Democratic primary against Bill Clinton?”
What a snide and uninformed characterization of Ron Paul’s support.
Paul is going to win this thing, and I mean the whole thing. And I don’t think it’s going to be that close in the end.
You heard it here first.
We’re having a straw poll in my state (which Ron Paul just happens to live in and represent). First in the state.
It’ll be hosted in Fort Worth, where I happen to live. I’ll actually be helping out and administering right here.
I’ve talked with many state insiders: No one sees Ron Paul pulling anywhere NEAR the top. The Straw poll event is Saturday, September 1, 2007.
Paul will take nothing but the GOP’s pride for a ride.
You’ve heard it here, continually: aliakbar.net
Oh, and second at Ames… considering there is NO one else but Romney in Iowa that wasn’t a hard call.
If he does… what educated political-follower will be surprised?
If he doesn’t what’s it prove?
It’s all nothing regarding Ron Paul. Perception is his campaign.
Most GOP voters are in the “none of the above” category even when Thompson is placed on the ballot if you haven’t heard.
Ali - gee, imagine that, insiders think the outsider candidate who is truly for the people, the common man, doesn’t have a chance. Gosh, that’s a shocker.
Paul is trampling the GOP’s pride because that pride is pure hubris. The GOP must change or die, period. It can accept Ron Paul as the second coming of Goldwater, or it can continue to vie with the Dems for the War Party vote - but the Peace Party is gaining ground, and will not be stopped. Care to give me odds? Would love to take your money . . .
One must have a valid Iowa drivers license or id to vote in the Ames Straw Poll. Anyone can purchase a ticket, but non-residents are not allowed to vote.
If “Texans” wish to attend the Ames Straw poll for Ron Paul, they are welcome to enjoy the festivities but will not be allowed to vote.
I’m not following this line of thought at all. If the GOP votes for Ron Paul, how does that hurt the GOP’s pride?
Secondly, considering who’s not making any effort in the straw polls in Iowa, and Ron Paul’s proximity to Iowa, he SHOULD have a strong shot at second or may as well hang it all up.
However, as I’ve stated before, and will again, whoever comes in second just lost. Although people can analyze it all they want, their race is over. Most often, if they want to be perceived as a player in the next race, they support the winner. So, I see no Lyndon Larouche thingy going on here at all.
As far as the Church votes not being a critical factor, I’ve had a LONG discussion on that on my blog. It’s lengthy so here’s the link: http://politics.moonagewebdream.com/2007/06/13/rudy-giuliani-and-the-religious-right/
Brief summary for those that don’t wanna go there, it’s more of a media thing than a reality thing.
Dr. Paul IS the authentic pro-lifer in the race–not only with the Congressional record of leadership to show for it but he’s personally delivered over 4,000 babies! The masses moving to the Paul rEVOLution are see a president and congress out of step with our values. Sure, Dr. Paul is out of their mainstream, but he’s represents us!
Ali,
Do you hear that rumble?
That’s the landslide moving underneath your feet. The American people are ready for a revolution and this is our last chance for a peaceful one. Millions realize this and we are dedicated to defending our country and our Constitution. If any citizen apposes his message then I seriously question their patriotism and their intelligence.
The world is going to be shocked when Ron Paul is sworn in as President.
At that moment the world will breathe a collective sigh of relief…
It’s about hope brothers and sisters!!!
I thank God that a peaceful revolution is starting and the American voter is out there in force backing Ron Paul for President in 2008 who represents our best hope at restoring our constitutional republic.
I think we might just have a chance if he is elected President.
Does the kind of Ron Paul supporters that unfailingly show up in any thread referring to the man strike anyone else as talking like cult believers?
Do they realise that the kind of “cult follower” rhetorics they post is more likely to turn people off than win them for their cause?
Ron Paul might place second in Iowa, but the reasons you give don’t excite me. He leads the 2nd tier in cash on hand. That’s true. But he isn’t spending it in Iowa. He’s not paying people’s registration. He has no buses to get people to Ames.
He was able to turn out 1200 people on short notice in Des Moines. That’s just 30 miles from Ames. So I’ll give you that one.
But,
His home base in Texas isn’t that far away? What kind of reason is that? In the first place, his major competition is from Brownback and Huckabee. Their home bases in Kansas and Arkansas are both considerably closer than Texas. And secondly, out-of-staters can’t vote in the Iowa straw poll anyway.
But you overlook these reasons why Paul might just surprise everyone:
56% of REPUBLICANS in Iowa want us to get out of Iraq. Ron Paul is the only man on the ballot who opposes the Iraq war.
Democrats and Independents are also eligible to vote in the Iowa straw poll, and they want us out of Iraq even more than the Republicans do.
There is no competing Democrat straw poll so Democrats will not have to give up voting in a Democrat contest in order to cross party lines to vote in the straw poll. They can vote for Ron Paul and still vote for Kucinich or whomever in the Democrat caucuses next January.
The vote is being held on the campus of Iowa State University. Ron Paul is very popular with this age group. Even though it’s summer, there should be a large source of potential Paul voters within walking distance of the straw poll site.
The question is whether or not Ron Paul’s lightly-funded, volunteer-focused campaign can actually identify the Ron Paul voters and get them to turn out. The potential votes for a second-place finish (or even first) is there.
Btw, most Ron Paul supporters aren’t the least bit concerned about the Bilderburgers.
Hey
I was surfing the web and i saw this site, pretty cool.
Currently im running and adult site:Reachton
k, just want to say hi 
Can i link you from my site? im looking for quality content like yours. If no let me know if i can add u in exchange for a montly fee or something.
Hey
I was surfing the web and i saw this site, pretty cool.
Currently im running and adult site:Reachton
k, just want to say hi
Can i link you from my site? im looking for quality content like yours. If no let me know if i can add u in exchange for a montly fee or something.
I live nearby, and have a valid ID. I’ll be there to vote for Ron with a group of 5-7. Kind of sucks I have to pay for 2 of them and myself, but it should be a fun day anyway. I never really got involved much before, so I might learn something. I ended up here googling “Ron Paul Ames”. Just curious about any new news about it.
His ideas seem to jive with what the country was founded on. Ideas that built the greatest country on earth into what it is now. It seems we are heading away from those original ideas we based this country on, and it isn’t working well. I am pro-choice, but I’ll let him slide on that since he believes the federal government shouldn’t control that anyway. If he had been President during 9/11, we would have went after Osama, but never went into Iraq, so I agree with his votes on each issue…YES to Afghanistan where Osama was, and NO to Iraq.
I also believe in liberty, freedom, smaller government, and personal privacy…thought I would at least state why I like Ron Paul since I ended up here. I don’t have any signs or shirts, but I will show up to vote for Ron. See you all there who are going, I will be the guy wearing a flag shirt and a red,white, and blue top hat looking thing….LOL If the hat is way out of place, it will stay in the car…hehehe
“Can Huckabee or Brownback be carried by the church lists [?]”
Last I checked, there’s a few churchgoers that don’t like the idea of endless war. There’s a few churchgoers that don’t like the idea of the death penalty. Indeed, there will be a few churchgoers that will vote Ron Paul on Saturday.
[…] Republican online strategist Patrick Ruffini predicts that Ron Paul will win second place in the Ames Straw Poll next month. He should pay more attention to the RPI’s rules. Ruffini writes of Paul: He leads the second tier in cash-on-hand. He was able to get 1,200 people out to the Hy-Vee (has any candidate done something that big on their own, not at an RPI event?). His home base in Texas isn’t that far of a drive, and his people are motivated enough to come in from out of state for him. And he’s making a big push on his Web site, which for all intents and purposes, is his campaign. […]
[…] As he wrote about you in late August: Ron Paul Will Place Second at Ames … You heard it here first. […]
On to Iowa…
I was surprised to see that one of my old Blogosphere famous adversaries, Patrick Ruffini, has actually predicted that Ron Paul will finish a successful second in the Iowa Straw Poll….