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links for 2007-08-13

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 13th, 2007 8:25 am

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Brownbackfired

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 12th, 2007 11:15 am

Of all the second tier campaigns, Sam Brownback’s was the best at the blocking and tackling of grassroots campaigning. They moved impressive numbers of people to Ames, spending $600,000. They placed an improbable third at CPAC. They have rock stars like Leon Wolf and Billy Valentine running their e-efforts.

And yet…

This aggressiveness also led them into running the most overtly mean-spirited campaign of the cycle. They haven’t been shy about trashing Romney, and unlike McCain, always having their name plastered all over the attack. They paid for robocalls trashing Romney and Tom Tancredo, whose pro-life credentials have never been in question so far as I can tell. They even questioned Baptist minister Mike Huckabee’s Christian bona-fides.

At Ames, all of Brownback’s targets either won (Romney) or performed far better than expected (Huckabee and Tancredo). Brownback’s third place finish would have been respectable had it not been at the hands of Huckabee, who spent a quarter of what Brownback did at Ames.

That’s leading to some pretty harsh assessments of what’s next for the Kansan:

After putting in the effort he did today and in the weeks leading up to Ames, Brownback’s third place finish will prompt questions about his ability to carry on in the race. - The Politico’s Jonathan Martin

* Brownback invested a lot into the straw poll and got little return. Finishing third behind Huckabee makes it tough for the Kansas Senator to make the argument that he is the most viable social conservative candidate in the field. This is a major setback for Brownback and could well lead to his departure from the race in the near future. - WashingtonPost.com’s Chris Cillizza

That’s rough. But it’s what happens when what should be insurgent campaigns take on the airs of political machines (see McCain, John).

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links for 2007-08-12

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 12th, 2007 8:25 am

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Huckabee!

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 11th, 2007 10:23 pm

Ames results are as follows:

Mitt Romney 4516 votes (31.0%)
Mike Huckabee 2587 votes (18.1%)
Sam Brownback 2192 votes (15.3%)
Tom Tancredo 1961 votes (13.7%).
Ron Paul with 1305 votes (9.1%)
Tommy Thompson 1,009 votes (7.3%)
Fred Thompson 231 votes (1.6%)
Rudy Giuliani 183 votes (1.3%)
Duncan Hunter 174 votes (1.2%)
John McCain 101 votes (0.7%)
John Cox 41 votes (0.3%)

Mitt Romney wins, but by just a shade more than George W. Bush did in 1999 when facing Steve Forbes, who threw millions at the straw poll, and against a far more formidable Ames field overall.

The surprise here has to be Huckabee, who reportedly did not bus many people in, and did not have the amenities of Romney or Brownback (air conditioned tent!!). Brownback’s turnout at the speeches was by all accounts very impressive, and they have to be steamed at being out-hustled by a sleeper candidate. Does Huckabee now steal the religious right mantle from Brownback?

Did Huckabee just do better retail politicking, converting solid Romney or Brownback votes, or was there something else going on?

Rumor: Sen. John McCain’s Iowa field staff is quietly helping Sen. Sam Brownback recruit supporters for the Ames straw poll. The goal is to drive down Mitt Romney’s margin of victory. Similarly, Rudy Giuliani’s campaign is quietly helping Mike Huckabee — for exactly the same reason.

Truth: Untrue, although free lance operators may have arrived at the same strategic insight. There’s no official help flowing from either McCain’s campaign or Giuliani’s campaign.

I’ve worked in politics long enough to know that things are rarely as interesting as the rumors. But just as it’s not a stretch to imagine some low-level collusion between the Brownback and McCain camps (it’s been happening in Michigan for months), it’s easy to see why other campaigns would want to depress Mitt Romney’s margin. If “free lance operators” for Rudy Giuliani were indeed helping Mike Huckabee, helping him leapfrog the better organized Brownback, that would speak well to the former Mayor’s organization in the Hawkeye State. And the same could be said for whoever else may have been covertly helping the man from Hope.

Maybe 10 or 15 percent of the crowd (about 2,000 people) at Iowa State was there organically, if you extrapolate Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain’s showing with their poll numbers. About 85% wouldn’t have shown up without a campaign paying their way.

Also, Ron Paul finished fifth. His camp expected to finish in the top three. Here was his communications director:

“We expect to be in the top three,” Benton said. “We’ve got four staffers organizing and we’ve got a lot of web site RSVPs from volunteers.”

That’s disappointing. No rEVOLution.

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An SMS Strategy for Ames

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 11th, 2007 11:44 am

UPDATE: Newt did this. What does it say that a non-candidate is more inventive with this stuff than any of the candidates?

Today, each of the Republican Presidential candidates participating in the Ames Straw Poll will speak before 12,000 Iowa Republican activists at the Hilton Coliseum. Though I have my doubts about overall attendance, the Iowa Republican Party claims that more than 40,000 could be in attendance. Whatever the number [will it even break 1999? -ed.], these are certain to be the XX,XXX most committed Iowa Republicans, at least those who are supporting Ames players.

Is it just me, or isn’t this the perfect place to roll out an SMS program? An intrepid candidate could stand at the podium, and say, “And to join my campaign, please text AMES to MITT08 (PAUL08, HUCK08, BRNBK, etc. etc.) [here, he holds up his cell phone]. Then please join us by our tent, show us the confirmation message on your phone, to receive your special Ames collectible ______.”

This can work because you have a large number of activists who are driven by incentives and looking for swag. Romney has the “best BBQ in Iowa.” Hunter has an Elvis impersonator handing out ice cream cones. The candidates could easily wall off one of these incentives for people who gave them their email address or cell phone number. And then have a list of 10-15K Iowa names, many of whom are supporters, but others who are potentially open to supporting you. And SMS is probably the best way to collect mass supporter info off a single speech.

Of course, smart campaigns should have already gotten email addresses for all the folks they are distributing tickets to. This enables them to stay in touch with a large base of activists from now through the caucuses.

As Joe Trippi has pointed out, SMS has special relevance to an event like Iowa. It allows for communication amongst caucus sites, and top-down messaging to all caucus locations at once, something we never had before. The Democratic caucuses in particular features a lot of politicking, with multiple rounds of voting, and much open cajoling. Trippi uses the example of using early exit data to shift votes to a third place candidate to potentially bury a dangerous second place rival, something he experienced in the Mondale-Hart race in ‘84. The Republicans are more of a straight vote, but one which features speeches beforehand. A text message could be sent at the start of the caucus pushing people on the fence, saying, “Entrance polls show ______ collapsing. Pls mk this pt 2 all our 2s and 3s.” You can also segment your list and make sure you’re delivering one message to your precinct captains, and another to your regular supporters.

Ames, and the Iowa State Fair, the other mega-event this week, are the logical collection points for this type of information. It’s unclear whether candidates will have this kind of opportunity again before the caucuses.

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links for 2007-08-11

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 11th, 2007 8:22 am

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links for 2007-08-10

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 10th, 2007 8:23 am

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links for 2007-08-09

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 9th, 2007 8:28 am

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What’s the Agenda?

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 8th, 2007 10:44 pm

So what’s the agenda around which a Movement 2.0 might be built? Ideas, not technology or tactics, are what any political movement is built around. They’re what animated the New Right.

The netroots has been strikingly devoid of new policy ideas. They are all about infrastructure and mechanics. We’ll build something stronger than them if we focus on the ideas. Here’s my (by no means exhaustive) list of big policy ideas that aren’t getting enough attention — and that we might exploit.

War on Terror

  • Take the War on Terror into Pakistan if necessary. I don’t think Barack Obama is wrong here. It seems kind of inconsistent for conservatives to lash into “our friends the Saudis” while standing up for the Pakistani status quo. Has anyone considered that it might strengthen Musharraf against local Islamists to be able to huff and puff against American military incursions, instead of always having to play pattycake with us? Musharraf long ago relinquished sovereignty over the tribal areas and his people will probably hate us no matter what we do.
  • Define an achievable victory in Iraq. Focus on defeating al Qaeda and seal the borders. De-emphasize nation-building (not the military’s core competency) and sectarian violence. Throw everything at defeating transnational Islamist terrorists. Extend gains in Anbar and build a safe haven there.
  • Screw the b*tching about FISA. More covert operations and HumInt. Now.
  • Reorient our focus in the Middle East toward strengthening civil society and institutions (the rule of law, education, etc.) instead of immediate elections; Rudy Giuliani made this point at the debate. Most of this is non-military.

Foreign Policy

  • John McCain’s idea of a Union of Democracies to delegitimize the U.N.
  • Position the Republican Party as the only party able to deal with increasing competition from China. Raise the Clintons’ coziness with the Chinese in the industrial swing states. Launch a moral crusade for democracy in China like we did against the Soviets. We would not endorse protectionism, but making America more competitive. Part of this will require increased legal immigration, particularly the high-skilled kind (H1-B, etc.) to be able to confront an economic engine of 1.2 billion people. If the Middle East ever diminishes in importance, the China issue returns with a vengeance.

Health Care

  • Refundable tax credits for health insurance.
  • Allow people to buy health insurance across state lines (many candidates have proposed this).
  • Make it easy for anyone, including non-employers, to start a health insurance pool. Support association health plans.
  • Any other elements of RomneyCare worth looking at?
  • Package these all together as H.R. 1, the Health Freedom & Deregulation Act of 2009. I bet a Republican President could claim a significant improvement in the number of uninsured by the end of the first term. I think it’s time for a Republican to do for health care what George Bush did for education: “steal” the issue from the Democrats, with a free-market, accountability focus.

Reform

  • End all earmarks. Don’t just reform them. Kill them. Dead.
  • Broad tax reform (any other tax changes suggested below are an interim fallback).
  • Open APIs for all government data — so our government’s dirty little secrets can be mashed up in third party applications and brought to light. National security and intelligence would be exempt. Imagine something like this for all government activity in your area? Unleash the Army of Davids on all manner of government information, including decades old bridge blueprints.

  • FEC-like reporting of all government expenditures over a certain amount ($10K, $100K?) in near real-time. National security exempt.
  • Purely as a process thing, I’d love to see Republican legislators do what Durbin is doing now on broadband: collaboratively draft legislation with the blogosphere. That would help rebuild a bond of trust that was broken by immigration.

Budget & Taxes

  • Lower tax rates for small businesses in the first three years of operation.
  • Index income tax rates to income growth not inflation — would stop de-facto tax increases as society as a whole gets richer and chill revenue growth.
  • Rudy Giuliani’s emphasis on shrinking the government payroll through attrition. An astounding percentage of the federal workforce will retire in the next five years, and government service is not exactly an appealing option for recent college grads. (But how do stanch the flow of ex-feds being rehired into the same jobs as contractors for twice the pay?)

Social Security

  • Keep on plugging on personal accounts for Social Security. The Democrats keep re-proposing universal health insurance every election, without result. We need to keep going on this until we win, the gutlessness of Congress in 2005 notwithstanding.
  • Rename “Social Security” as part of any comprehensive reform to something that honors the individual rather than the state. Framing matters! They won’t be able to say “Republicans will cut Social Security” anymore.

Immigration

  • Build the border fence — then let’s talk about regularization that requires illegals to exit the U.S. for a period of time (tied to ~70-80% reductions in border crossings).

Anything else? Leave them in the comments. Or post them on a site like Solutions Factory for others to rate.

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Cox Internet Outage

by Patrick Ruffini :: August 8th, 2007 1:07 pm

I am posting this not because I think this information is useful to my regular readers, but because I’m hoping to create a record of it in Technorati and Google Blog Search for anyone else trying to figure out what’s going on.

For two days now, I haven’t been able to connect to several sites like Google, CNN, and Digg. For someone who relies extensively on Google Apps for email and Google Docs, this is pretty frustrating. I have Cox high-speed in Northern Virginia. I checked all the sites that were blinking-out in my feedreader, and they all map back to 64.x.x.x IP addresses. This is clearly a network issue.

As of this morning, Cox service reps were simultaneously unaware of this issue, or tried to pass it off a separate California/Arizona issue described on this blog. That issue has been noted on Cox’s Virginia network status page for about a week (odd since it’s all the way across the country).

Clear communication about service outages is critical, whether through network status pages, company blogs, or user forums. Last week when Google Analytics was out for 36 hours, Google failed to note it on their blog until the third day. The blog didn’t have comments, so users couldn’t converse directly on it, though the support forum was all abuzz about it.

In an age when consumers can create a user-generated backlash to outages and subsequent nonresponsiveness (emphasis on the nonresponsiveness) by posting it to their blogs, companies need to be more on top of alerting users to known problems.

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Patrick Ruffini   Patrick Ruffini is an online political strategist, blogger, and wearer of many hats. More...


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