The Change Message Worked
by Patrick Ruffini :: October 16th, 2007 10:15 pmMA-5 has been called, and it’s looking like a narrow 5-point Tsongas win. That’s closer than all the public polls and it showed Ogonowski’s momentum was all upside the entire campaign.
This was always an uphill battle. MA-5 voted by 17 points for John Kerry in 2004. After 2006, I’m not sure there’s a district anywhere in America that Democratic that’s represented by a Republican.
But there is a clear way forward for the Republican Party out of tonight. It’s one that we didn’t have last night. Or last month. Or a year ago.
It’s simple: the change message works. America is anti-Washington, anti-Congress, and anti-corruption. When that’s where Republicans are, they win. Jim Ogonowski showed us that. Maybe not in an overwhelmingly Democratic district like MA-5. But what about in a +7 Democrat district? Or in purple seats?
Nor do we need the usual suspects to deliver this message. You don’t need to recruit a risk-averse State Senator who talks to his consultants and waits for “his time” to run. All you need is a plain-spoken veteran with an extraordinary life story. We need more citizen-candidates like Jim Ogonowski. We need them to pick off Democrats in blue and purple seats. We need them as primary challengers to corrupt incumbents. In “safe” Democrat-held districts, we need to run people who can get 45% of the vote, and then be in a position to finish the job in 2010. In 2006, the average second-time Democratic challenger who won received 43% of the vote their last time out.
When he announced, I don’t remember anyone in Washington being overly excited Jim Ogonowski was running, or thinking this could be a close race. (For me, it was that first SurveyUSA poll that really raised my antennae.) But he turned out to be exactly what the district and the Republican Party needed.
Tonight, we’re confident and playing on the other guy’s turf. That hasn’t happened in a while. There’s a reason the MyDD guys are muttering “Not good” tonight.
Tagged: 2008 
congress jim ogonowski MA 5
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What’s done is done, but, right now, I’m sure a lot of Massachusetts Republicans are saying under their breath, “If we’d only had two more weeks….”
“America is anti-Washington, anti-Congress, and anti-corruption.”
Not to mention PO’d about immigration, which Ogonowski made an issue of as well. But I guess you can’t really mention that in upper-crust Republican circles.
[…] Patrick Ruffini reminds us that the district voted for John Kerry by 17 percentage points in 2004. He thinks Ogonowski found the right message that could resonate for other Republicans in 2008. It’s simple: the change message works. America is anti-Washington, anti-Congress, and anti-corruption. When that’s where Republicans are, they win. Jim Ogonowski showed us that. Maybe not in an overwhelmingly Democratic district like MA-5. But what about in a +7 Democrat district? Or in purple seats? […]
[…] By six percent. MA-5 has been called, and it’s looking like a narrow 5-point Tsongas win. That’s closer than all the public polls and it showed Ogonowski’s momentum was all upside the entire campaign. […]
[…] Judging from the campaign literature in my mailbox, the Republicans seem to be listening to Matt Margolis, Patrick Ruffini, The Campaign Spot, and a Redstate commenter, all of whom discussed running hard on the immigration issue after Niki Tsongas only beat her Republican opponent in the 5th congressional district in Massachusetts by 5 points. The Boston Globe (registration required) noted that no Republican ever came within single digits of former Rep. Martin T. Meehan (he won his 2004 campaign by 37 points and ran unopposed in 2006) and John Kerry beat George Bush there by 25 points. […]