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The 2000 NH Exit Poll

by Patrick Ruffini :: December 31st, 2007 5:20 pm

Because we seem to be headed for a replay of the same dynamic that prevailed in the early 2000 primaries, I thought it would be helpful to go back and take a second look at the exit poll from the ‘00 NH primary, which John McCain won by 18 points — 48.5% to 30.3% for then-Governor George W. Bush.

My recent posts notwithstanding, McCain looks to me like the prohibitive favorite in the Granite State. I was in New Hampshire for Bush. The night before, the race leaned slightly to McCain. In their weak moments, the volunteers on the guessed we’d fall short by 3 or 4 points. We lost by 18. There was a hidden vote for McCain on primary day that counted for as much as 15 points.

McCain will not get 49 percent — the also-rans are stronger this time — but 40 or 45 percent is not out of the question. To see why, we need only look to McCain’s amazing strength among virtually every subgroup in the 2000 primary, and the overall composition of the New Hampshire GOP electorate. In stark contrast to rest of the nation, it is very difficult for a candidate running as a conservative to win a Republican primary in the Northeast. McCain won every New England state except Maine against Bush in 2000, even Bush’s ancestral Connecticut.

With Obama failing to close the sale and McCain surging, independents will vote in large numbers in the Republican primary. After Romney’s increasingly likely victory in Iowa, the best I suspect he’ll be able to do is claim that as his “conference championship” win to advance to the finals, and raise a cloud of dust to limit the damage in New Hampshire. As Bush discovered in 2000 and Bob Dole discovered in ‘96, New Hampshire is strange and an outlier.

Here is a reminder of the scope of McCain’s win in New Hampshire, by the numbers:

  • McCain won every county and all but a handful of small towns.
  • McCain ran stronger among men, 57 percent of the primary electorate, winning by 50 to 28 percent.
  • He won voters over 60 with 52 percent, and those over 65 with 54 percent. The formidable Mike Dennehy turnout operation has the blessing of being able to mobilize seniors, the highest-propensity voting group, who already identify with John McCain.
  • He won college graduates, 52 percent of the electorate, by nearly 2-to-1, 53 to 28 percent.
  • Barely 53 percent of the electorate “affiliated” with the Republican Party — though more were registered — and McCain took 38 percent of this most-conservative half of the electorate, running just three points behind Bush.
  • Just 51 percent of GOP primary voters considered themselves conservative (that’s compared to 73 percent in the 2000 Iowa Caucuses). McCain edged Bush 37-35 percent with conservatives.
  • McCain won 48 percent of Pat Buchanan voters.
  • McCain won registered Republicans 44-35. That’s right: had this been a closed primary, McCain still would have won by nearly 10 points.

The underlying demographics are also tough for a Mitt Romney or a Mike Huckabee:

  • Just 16 percent of voters considered themselves “religious right” — that number was 37 percent in Iowa.
  • 20 percent were Born Again or Evangelical.
  • Just 36 percent attended religious services weekly or more. 42 percent of voters nationally fell into this category, both Republican and Democrat. One imagines the number was well north of 50 percent for Bush voters.

What’s changed since 2000? For one thing, New Hampshire has become more Democratic as the footprint of Metro Boston continues to expand. The Republican Party has shrunk, leaving the GOP primary more apt to be influenced by independents. If anything, these unfolding trends only reinforce the likelihood of a McCain blowout on January 8th.

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by Patrick Ruffini :: December 31st, 2007 7:22 am

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Flashback: The Real John McCain

by Patrick Ruffini :: December 30th, 2007 12:13 pm

In preparation for a John McCain presidential run, I clipped out what is perhaps the seminal article on McCain’s transformation from a Goldwater conservative to a maverick quasi-Democrat during the 2000 campaign and the early Bush years. Jonathan Chait’s assessment of just how far McCain had gone to the left in the April 29, 2002 issue of The New Republic stood out even at the time. I Googled it a few years later, and saved the full text. It is no longer available on TNR’s website.

The piece is heavy on speculation of a McCain presidential run as a Democrat. That issue has been discussed in this campaign. But it also sets the context in which these rumors swirled, laying out factual reasons for why John McCain (D-AZ) made sense. McCain was the chief Republican enabler of the Democrat-led Senate not just on campaign finance, but on taxes, health care, CAFE standards, guns, global warming, and corporate governance. People who were not active in politics in the first year of the Bush presidency may wonder “Why all the fuss?” about McCain. This article is why.

McCain denies ever considering a party switch, but he certainly did allow his aides, including then-Democrats John Weaver and Marshall Wittmann, to flirt with the idea:

John Weaver hunches his angular frame over a Styrofoam cup of coffee in the basement cafeteria of the United States Senate and tries to explain what might seem–to an outsider–his peculiar political loyalties. Once a loyal Republican strategist who directed the presidential aspirations of über-conservative Phil Gramm and helped plot John McCain’s maverick primary run in 2000, he has since reregistered as a Democrat and severed consulting ties to all Republicans except McCain, for whom he still serves as chief strategist. “I only work for Democrats now,” he tells me. Noticing that he has overlooked the party affiliation of his most prominent advisee, I helpfully add: “And John McCain.” Weaver shrugs his shoulders and grins, “Oh, right.”

On his transformation during the 2000 campaign:

Pretty soon McCain was veering off in directions nobody could have foreseen even a few months before, openly pointing out that Bush’s tax cut favored the rich and attacking influential religious conservatives like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell as “forces of evil.” As Marshall Wittmann, who advised McCain during the primary, puts it, “Ideologically, we all changed.”

Note: Wittmann was an ur-weblogger in 2001, blogging at “The Bull Moose,” which I read daily. A McCain independent run was a prominent hobbyhorse of his, and he was later hired back as McCain’s Senate communications director.

The prominent issues on which McCain sided with Democrats and against Republicans are as long as my arm, including a much-overlooked attack on Second Amendment rights:

The degree to which McCain has abandoned contemporary conservatism is reflected in the legislative program he has championed since Bush took office. Most notably, of course, he shepherded campaign finance reform–an effort that put him in close cooperation with Democrats in Congress. McCain also collaborated with liberal Democrats John Edwards and Ted Kennedy on a patients’ bill of rights; with Charles Schumer on more widespread sale of generic prescription drugs; with Ernest Hollings to put federal employees in charge of airport security–all of which set him against fierce business lobbying. And he teamed up with Evan Bayh to promote AmeriCorps, an effort Bush later co-opted with his own smaller AmeriCorps boost.

But perhaps most amazing has been McCain’s willingness to take stands even many Democrats are afraid of. He voted against Bush’s tax cut, the centerpiece of the new president’s agenda. Along with John Kerry, he sponsored legislation to raise automobile emissions standards, and he paired with Joe Lieberman to try to force Bush to reduce greenhouse gases in compliance with the Kyoto accord. Also with Lieberman, McCain has proposed forcing people who buy firearms at gun shows to undergo background checks–closing the “gun-show loophole”–even as most Democrats shy away from any form of gun control. He has infuriated the gambling industry by proposing to ban wagering on college sports. And along with Carl Levin, he has co-sponsored a bill to force companies that deduct executive stock options from their taxes to disclose the cost on their financial statements–another effort few Democrats have been willing to join.

It was no wonder that,

on high-profile issues, McCain’s legislative coalitions consist entirely, or almost entirely, of Democrats.

McCain likes to paint himself as the true economic conservative in the race. Here’s what he was saying on this just a few years ago, sounding more like Upton Sinclair than Ronald Reagan:

In the last year though his ideology has grown coherently progressive. “We have had regulatory agencies always to curb the abuses or potential abuses of the capitalist system,” he said earlier this year on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “This is not a totally laissez-faire country.”

And here is his dodgy, conflicted rhetoric on Life:

Moreover, it has gotten hard to discern to what degree McCain is actually anti-abortion at all. At one point during his primary run, he told a reporter that “certainly in the short term or even the long term I would not support the repeal of Roe v. Wade.” Another time, when asked what he would do if his daughter sought an abortion, McCain replied that he’d leave the final decision to her. In both instances, he restated his anti-abortion position after the ensuing uproar, but polls showed that voters believed he was pro-choice. In the last year McCain reversed himself and came out in favor of stem-cell research. So while it’s hard to figure out where he stands, the best guess is that he remains personally against abortion but neutral, or even opposed to, making it illegal.

None of this is entirely new. But since June of 2004 (when McCain did an about-face from his role as Kerry surrogate-in-chief against the Swiftvets, and decided to campaign actively for the President), he has done a surprisingly good job of cloaking his Senate record. For months, we have heard him talk about nothing except the war and earmarks. In this topsy-turvy campaign, it’s easy for Republicans to get caught up in the other candidates’ flaws and forget why they distrusted McCain.

This piece is a vivid reminder why, in living color. I’ve reposted it in full below so you can judge for yourself.

Read it before you vote. Read the rest of this entry »

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by Patrick Ruffini :: December 30th, 2007 7:20 am

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Is McCain Losing It?

by Patrick Ruffini :: December 29th, 2007 9:10 pm

In 2000, it took till South Carolina and Virginia for the gaffes to start rolling off the assembly line. In the wake of McCain’s “phony” attack, it looks like the pressure may be getting to him.

There’s this:

McCain — asked about Romney’s latest immigration attack in New Hampshire — says “Never get into a wrestling match with a pig. You both get dirty — and the pig likes it.”

And then this:

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) - Republican presidential hopeful John McCain joked Friday that given his campaign’s ups and downs, he’s shown the stamina of the last man on Earth.

“I’ve been declared dead in this campaign on five or six occasions. I won’t refer to a recent movie I saw, but I think I am legend,” he told reporters, referring to the film in which Will Smith stars as the last man on Earth.

Oy.

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by Patrick Ruffini :: December 29th, 2007 7:18 am

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by Patrick Ruffini :: December 28th, 2007 7:18 am

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by Patrick Ruffini :: December 27th, 2007 7:18 am

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McCain in NH: Qui Bono?

by Patrick Ruffini :: December 26th, 2007 11:06 pm

I’ve been pretty harsh towards Rudy’s rope-a-dope strategy lately. Does McCain’s surge in New Hampshire and the possibility of Romney losing both early contests cause me to revisit?

Yes and no. The prospect of a Huckabee-McCain victory in the first two contests scrambles the field, opening things up slightly for the Mayor. But ultimately I expect that McCain becomes the de-facto national frontrunner the morning after a New Hampshire win, and the race will be on to find the “Stop McCain” alternative. Chuck Todd outlined the beginnings of this scenario on Hardball tonight. If McCain finishes third in Iowa, the media will slingshot him to a win in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, it’s a short hop to Michigan, where Democrats can freely participate in the GOP primary (Obama and Edwards won’t appear on MI’s beauty contest ballot). Let’s recall McCain’s 2000 percentages in contested primaries using 2008’s calendar (via the US Election Atlas):

NH 1/8 - 48.45% (won)
MI 1/15 - 49.15% (won)
SC 1/19 - 41.96% (lost)
CA 2/5 - 42.87% (lost)

McCain has a track record of getting at least 40% of the vote in key nominating states where 30% will probably be enough for a win in 2008. He has legs in Michigan and South Carolina, and potentially in Florida, where I would expect Gov. Charlie Crist to make good on his long-delayed endorsement (which basically fell by the wayside when McCain ran aground earlier in 2007). On February 5th, he would be in a strong position in California — a position amplified by the state’s by-Congressional District delegate allocation in which a win in a heavily Latino district with a few thousand GOP voters counts as much for a win in John Campbell’s Orange County district (so, McCain’s immigration stance could net him lots of delegates). This path to the nomination would not have worked as the full-frontal assault planned by John Weaver, but in a scrambled field with the media manufacturing momentum on McCain’s behalf, it should be taken seriously.

That doesn’t mean I expect McCain to win. A “Stop McCain” alternative will rise. Perhaps Rudy is banking on this being him. I tend to think it will be Mitt Romney, as there will be a premium placed on a safer, more well-financed alternative who can capture the right. Provided he can avoid elimination in Iowa and New Hampshire (in other words, a devastating double-digit loss in both states). The media would have the race it expected back in January.

Allowing McCain to win New Hampshire would probably be more dangerous to Rudy than a narrow Romney win. The ideal scenario for him would be Huckabee by 5 in Iowa, Romney by 5 in New Hampshire. No real momentum is generated. The field is still scrambled. And McCain fails to accomplish the central mission of his campaign and is walking wounded.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve received more-than-sporadic emails from early and serious Rudy supporters ready to jump ship to McCain, largely to stop Romney. McCain is dangerous to Rudy because Rudy’s votes are directly transferable to McCain in a way they aren’t to any other candidate. If momentum shifts to one, the other one suffers. On the other hand, this bloc of secular, center-right GOP voters is somewhat immune to Romney and Huckabee momentum and in fact could be galvanized by it.

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by Patrick Ruffini :: December 25th, 2007 7:18 am

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Patrick Ruffini   Patrick Ruffini is an online political strategist, blogger, and wearer of many hats. More...


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