Defusing the Huckabomb

by Patrick Ruffini :: December 11th, 2007 1:24 am

A particularly shrewed corresponded emailed tonight with this observation:

Not to confuse the Romney camp with the Kremlin, but using Huckabee to take out Mitt in Iowa seems to resemble using the Muhadjadeen to remove the Soviets from Afghanistan…once they are done they will be as big a problem for us as the old enemy was.

Huckabee has moved from niche regional contender to (for now) bona-fide national frontrunner. He is now within 1 and 2 points of Rudy Giuliani nationally in two national polls released this evening (with a decent post-speech bump for Mitt). This is the first time anyone has gotten so close to Rudy in a non-Rasmussen poll (which uses a very tight likely voter screen — itself ominous for the Mayor). Huck is now overperforming Fred at his peak.

This is no longer just an Iowa deal. Huckabee leads in South Carolina. He can win Florida. He can play in Michigan with the help of the unions, and the Wolverine State has a habit of awarding unorthodox primary wins.

With Huckabee no longer content to play foil to Mitt Romney, he becomes a threat to Rudy. Rudy’s recent dip in the RCP average coincides precisely with Huck’s meteoric rise. Sooner or later, both Mitt and Rudy will have to deal with Huckabee.

Mitt’s attempt starts tomorrow, in the form of a negative TV ad aimed at Iowa households. It’s unlikely this alone will do it, but the idea here is to start a drumbeat of negative buzz and scrutiny of Huckabee that crests just in time to eeke out a narrow win or loss on the 3rd. Since Iowa is effectively a two-man race right now, Romney’s people are probably betting they can evade the murder/suicide scenario.

How does Romney put away Huckabee? I’ve written “the memo” before, but it bears repeating: Mitt Romney’s progress in the polls has been plodding at best because he appeals to people’s heads and not their hearts. My advice to Mitt simple: let people get to know you. Talk about the Olympics, talk about your business successes, talk about how you’ve turned around everything you’ve touched — and go light on the policy stuff. Do an ad straight to the camera and say, “I’m not the flavor of the month — but if you want someone who has the real world experience to turn things around, I’m your guy.” On conservatism, tell people you’ve got “the whole package” — and scratch the awful, elitist “three legged stool” metaphor. Rudy’s a social liberal. Huck’s an economic liberal. Mitt’s just right.

For Rudy to survive, his campaign mantra for the next 29 days must be: national security, national security, national security. Is the national security party really going to nominee a former governor with zero national security experience to face al-Qaeda? This is Rudy’s key differentiator against Huckabee — and Mitt too. It is also McCain’s narrative — I saw first hand at the Florida debate how McCain gained goodwill just by being the only one to talk about the war. But by owning McCain’s issue — and by remaining the stronger of the two — McCain’s voters may finally get the hint and go Rudy.

The rap on Rudy is that he talks about 9/11 incessantly. If only that were so, he’d be doing a lot better. The reason Rudy has remained so strong for so long is not that he cut the welfare rolls in New York City, it’s not because he kicked the squeegies out, and it’s not even the dramatic reduction in crime he’s best known for. He loves to talk about these things, but primary voters don’t care. The one and only reason Giuliani was ever a national frontrunner is because of his performance on 9/11 and what that said about his ability to lead in a crisis.

Why he hasn’t run a campaign that is singularly evocative of that theme — just as Mitt has glossed over his experience as a turnaround artist — is baffling. Rudy’s message seems to have devolved into a 1996 Bill Clinton school uniforms message, just as Mitt’s has become a conservative panderfest.

Rudy needs to seal the deal on national security. Unlike McCain, who is Mr. Iraq, he can broaden it to toughness on Iran and the broader terror war. The central theme of a Rudy-Huck fight will be “Who do you trust as Commander-in-Chief?”

GOP primary voters feel passionately about two things: values and the war. Huckabee has cornered the market on the first. His success is not about ideology, but identity. For his voters, he’s a Christian first, and a conservative second. Attacking him on conventional conservative issues won’t undermine his core support because it has nothing to do with being a conservative.

And McCain, poised ominously for a comeback in New Hampshire, is on track to win the second by default, despite his narrow focus on Iraq, the weakest link in our national security message.

Can Romney reassert himself as the best all-around conservative when people believe he’s a conservative of convenience? Can Rudy steal back the national security issue?

The survival of the GOP’s conventional frontrunners hinges on the answers to these questions.

Tagged: mike huckabee mitt romney rudy giuliani

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