Romney’s Race to Lose
by Patrick Ruffini :: December 16th, 2007 11:52 pmI never thought I’d write that. Here’s an Ambinder-inspired numbered outline with my thinking.
1. The surging candidates (Huckabee and McCain) are flaky and/or can’t win. This empowers the institutional frontrunners, Rudy and Romney. And Rudy is in trouble.
1a. Huckabee has solved Romney’s expectations game in Iowa. A win for Romney out of the Hawkeye State translates to a big win and momentum. A narrow loss is within expectations. Only a double digit loss or third would significantly damage Romney.
1b. Huckabee’s momentum out of Iowa isn’t actionable in New Hampshire, so some other external force would need to rise to kill Romney’s lead in NH.
1c. McCain could be that force, with Rudy incredibly “pulling out” of NH after running ads exclusively there for a month. There is the Lieberman endorsement. And his embrace of Al Gore’s global warming song and dance. He is “recapturing the magic” by going even more explicitly center-left in the Granite State than he did in 2000. If he succeeds (dubious with Obamamania sucking up all the indie oxygen), expect the same frenzy that rose to stop him in 2000. To do this, the GOP will need to rally around a safe, establishment-minded candidate to go in for the easy kill.
2. Enter Mitt Romney. He hasn’t been Mr. Excitement, but he has succeeded in positioning himself as the acceptable default — the “nobody ever got fired for buying IBM” guy. His cornering the market on “undecided (non-evangelical) conservatives” is the beginning of this consolidation. The blue-haired ladies who sit on the county committees won’t make a fuss over him. There will be no “Stop Romney” movement should he vault to the top of the polls, as he almost certainly would after Iowa-New Hampshire wins. (Indeed, the way he has muscled himself into the mold of GOP establishment frontrunner will be studied for decades to come.) Now at 15% in the national polls, he has demonstrated an adequate-enough base of national support to be able to leverage big wins into the nomination.
2a. Even if the challenger isn’t McCain, but Huckabee, a safe, brand-name Republican will still be needed to counter him. Rudy is trying (with party line stances of immigration, taxes, guns, etc.), but has not made a comprehensive case as to why Romney as the nominee would be risky.
The race began as McCain-Romney. After, Rudy! Fred! Huck! it would be a particularly cruel joke on the punditocracy should it end that way. But given the depths to which McCain has had to sink to rekindle the flame, he would face Romney in a much weakened state. Indeed, it would be deeply ironic if McCain manages to weaken his good friend Rudy Giuliani in New Hampshire, only to be hand the nomination to Mitt Romney, his arch-nemesis. In this way, a vote for McCain in New Hampshire is a vote for Romney.
So, unless Rudy manages to turn the election into a referendum on leadership-in-a-time-of-crisis in the next three weeks, at least how it stands now, say hello to Mitt Romney as our nominee.
Tagged: 2008 
mitt romney rudy giuliani
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Crossposted from Kevin Drum
Films
1. Phenix City Story
2. Ode To Billie Joe
3. Billy Tunk
4. Last Man The Outlaw
5. Hippie Chicks
6. Onions And Fries Poorr
7. Mississippi Burning
8. Elvis
9. Meet The Beatles
10. The Loneliness Of The –Long-Distance Runner
11. If….
12. As If
13. Last Man Curve
14. Lisence To Drive
15. Goldfinger
16. For Your Eyes Only (m, f)
17. A Hard Day’s Night
18. The Magical Mystery Tour
19. Fool On The Hill Film
20. The Mafia
21. Invaders From Mars
22. Space Invaders
23. Little House On The Prairie
24. Green Acres
25. Fiddler On The Roof
26. Miracle Mile
27. Year Voice :-::::: Broke
28. Sweetback, ..I
29. Viet Nam The ………..!People
30. Harvest Of Shame
31. Old People
32. Wit
33. All About Eve Part IV
34. Lethal Weapon II
35. Agnes Of God
36. Lethal Weapon III
37. Elvis II
38. Rain Dance
39. John And Mary
40. Thunderheart
41. Hawaii
42. Unforgiven
43. Beer Wine
44. Lamb Ribs Are Peoples Chosen
45. What Every Baby Knows
46. A Stranger Among Us
47. Butter Cat
48. Shaggy DA
49. I Am The !!!!!!!!!Blocks
50. Day After
51. Titicut Follies
52. Pineapple Rrings
53. Baie Of the Breakers
54. Wine Sine
55. Weird Science
56. alice’s Restaurant
57. Real Genius
58. The Grateful Dead Twon
59. Sergeant Peppersu Lonely Hearts Club Yellow Submarine
60. Sergeant Pepper Goes To Vietnam
61. Beer And Ramirez
62. Dazed And Confused
63. Leonard Part Six
64. Requiem For A Dream
65. ABBEY ROAD
66. Renaldo And Clara
67. Hangnail
68. For A Few Dollars More
69. The Good The Bad And The Ugly With The Hangnail Part III
70. Lethal Weapon I
71. Reds
72. Lethal Weapon IV
73. Hamburger Hill
74. Apocalypse Now
75. Born On The Fourth Of July
76. Jackie Brown
77. Platoon
78. King Rat
79. Flower Drum Song
80. Ventura County
81. Monterey County In Entire Soledad
82. Cooley High
83. Godfather
84. Godfather II
85. Taxi Driver
86. The True Life Story Of Doctor Led Zeppelin
87. The Exorcist
88. Godfather III
89. A Prayer For The Dying
90. Bloody Sunday
91. Carlito’s Way
All of those are antiwar films.
They could be shown at an antiwar rally.
Why couldn’t I become a Republican?
It’se not because I looked shady.
It’s because Republicans can’t do antiwar rallies.
1. They refused to let the Iraqis against Aziz.
2. They refulsed just war on Pol Pot Khmere.
3. They believe The Prince poliisci descinged religious warstheory.
4. They believe when you’re poor romance bettenh 19 and 13 should be told to everyone.
5. They assume Watts always votes for his party, !Julius Caesar.
6. They don’t believe their Puerto Rican Statehooder spanish.
7. They think nobody ever has to run from a country.
8. They’re obsessed with ‘ ‘”'’cervical cancer.
Mitt could.
Black republican is a foul word because of rererevolutionary communism.
are you kidding? mitt has spent 10 times everyone else in iowa, done 400 something events, if he were to lose, its over. mitt winning NH is like rudy winning NJ, just a neighber guy winning in his own backyard. after NH, mccain and romney are non-factors. rudy is going to win michigan, Nevada, Huck will end thompson in SC, and it will be rudy and huck fighting for florida, with rudy coming out on top. then super tuesday seals it.
One of the problems with your analysis is that a tight loss for Romney is OK. What I’ve been reading is that would be a disaster for Romney if he lost to Huck. He is outspending him by a ton so a loss, even close would be a problem for him. Then what happens if he goes to NH and loses to McCain, which he will. Romney loses in two states one in his backyard and you think he becomes the nominee?
Leon
You, of all Can Stay probably has as clear a view of the future as Patrick or any of us, scary as that may be to admit. Be prepared to be surprised, very surprised, by the twists and turns along the way to the nomination.
What if Ron Paul comes first or a strong second in Iowa, or even New Hampshire? Will the socons and religicons really throw the party into the Huckabee patch and split the coalition once and for all? Will the Establishment impose Mitt Romney, or will the non-Huckabee vote settle on a single champion instead of splitting evenly between Rudy, McCain, Romney, and Fred Thompson?
Will the now seemingly irresistible urge to settle everything by the end of the first week of February drive a crazy decision, or will cooler heads prevail?
Patrick’s scenario is a credible one for this particular week, but hold on to the nearest safe grab point, it will be a very bumpy ride. Any one of the top five could still win the nomination. If any but two of the five win the nomination, it will be worthless anyhow, and we will have four (or eight) years in opposition to regroup and redefine the party.
Here is the Problem with Ruffini’s Analysis
All of the polls and predictions by the pundit class are all based on Ron Paul’s first time GOP primary/Caucus voters NOT showing up on election day. But if they do Ron Paul will likely get about 20% in Iowa and about 25% in New Hampshire. Informal polls all suggest that Ron Paul’s first time voters are between 60% and 80% of his support. All the analysis in world won’t yield the answer until January.
As usual, more delusion from a Bushie. Still upset that McCain upset you in NH in 2000? January 20th, 2009-end of an error. Go McCain!
I agree that Huckabee has lowered the expectations game for Romney in Iowa and the he could survive a defeat there. But he must win New Hampshire. From there it gets dicey. Romney and Huckabee are tied in Michigan and South Carolina. Whoever wins those two states will likely take Florida and be in the catbird seat for the Feb. 5th states. But if they split those two states, it gets very complicated. In that case the Florida and the Feb. 5th states likely will remain in play for the other well-funded candidates. That would seem to give the edge to Romney since he has the money, but Giuliani might also still have a fighting chance and even Ron Paul, given his bank account, could be a factor on Feb. 5th and beyond.
We could be looking at a brokered convention for the first time since the Democrats took 3 ballots to nominated Adlai Stevenson in 1952. It all may well depend on just how sustained the Huckabee surge turns out to be.
Now, I am not a black Republican.
Here is Ode To Billie Joe.
A Black Republican cuoldn’t write about Rwanda.
My personal impression of Deep Throat is this…. real.
He deserved more than life during nursing home.
His name was not W Mark Felt.
I don’t know him.
You are rich to powers.
Deep Throat could be me.
Pick any three.
Jewish white.
Church night.
Owns koran.
Drinks wine.
Yells loud.
Usually silent.
Knows that Ramirez was Viet.
Recognizes Billys like Tunk.
And lastly, just found where his trothed works at a tragedy shr.
Here is the problem with Griswold versus Connecticut.
The stuff was already legal.
She had more money.
He did the abortion.
Charles Manson was not there.
Prolifers were totally evil.
Connecticut had her lawwrite.
She took acid with ‘’Patrick'’.
She had a pregnancy none.
And she was abused by crimen called cape.
They are not on television.
And HAVE declared their affiliations for the LAST time.
Every one of these virgins is not able to pronounce the words to her,
“Why can’t I watch Black Robe?”
MAN OF MARBLE
WHITE
RED
BLUE
THE KILLING FIELDS
REDS
CHOW YUNF
THAI KBOX
VIEN IANE
LOCA MART
I just can’t believe this is all we have to vote for. Mouthpieces for a failed ideology. I’m staying home come election day and hope for a better party next time.
“I just cannot believe that the GOP faithful would nominate a confirmed flip-flopper of immense proportions on nothing but his word.”
Why not? Most of the Dems seem ready to so with Hillary.
I don’t know what your problem is with John McCain but it is clearly clouding your analysis. Should Romney lose Iowa after spending so much time and money there it would be a big blow to his campaign and I think significantly affect his campaign in NH. With Rudy pulling out McCain now has an additional pool of voters to go after in addition to the independent voters. Should McCain win in NH he can go on to Michigan where he has won before and do well there with a severely wounded Romney. Then on to South Carolina for teh showdown with Huck. This time around McCain has teh backing of much of the establishment in the state (Sen Graham, AG McMaster, Speaker of teh House, etc)and the experience of running down there. When he wins there it is over and he is your nominee. Then you can suck eggs!
last time I heard the phrase-’his to lose’, was in reagrds to kerry v. bush, by mark halperin. (son of morton halperin-director of soros’ foundation)
It was one of many kisses of death.
I’ll take any gop ticket, sans huckableat.
Psychic on coast to coast predicted, clinton/edwards v. McCain/guilliani. not a bad guess, especially since it is not the current chalk horses. Feasible, if improbable.
I was discouraged by the thought of Ron Paul running 3rd party, but then saw his core group is 9/11 conspiracy nuts. Hurts the dems more than the gop, especially if clinton is the nominee.
Romney wins Iowa, fred draws off enough of the huckasheep.
Problems with McCain?
not a supply sider, although a fiscal conservative.
his #1 villian is rummy, who is still held in high regard among conservatives.
IMMIGRATION.
McCain in a vaccuum? no. McCain v clinton or obama? yes.
McCain v. rudy/mitt/fred? any of the latter.
“Still upset that McCain upset you in NH in 2000?”
not when I look at my presidential x-mas cards from the past 7 years…
“But if they do Ron Paul will likely get about 20% in Iowa and about 25% in New Hampshire.”
put the crack pipe down.
edwards love child story…
if true, this was a card held in team rodham’s pocket, to knock edwards off if he was a strong second.
They now need women and white voters, so they play the card.
Can’t wait to see who they get to remind us tht obama’s middle name is hussein, next.(Take a bow Kerrey)
What do you mean it started out with McCain vs. Romney? I thought Romney was always considered bottom-of-the-front-runners until recenty. I say it started out McCain-Rudy, then Rudy, then Fred! then Huck!, with Romney never really moving from a dubiously top-tiered position.
I would have to say I think Patrick is right, because is the compressed calendar we have, the Huck surge was actually two “early”. In other words, the conventional wisdom that Romney would win is now gone. But as he creeps back up, anything close to a win will be OK. Here is another dude who thinks Romney is going to win it.
[…] Read the rest of this great post here […]
[…] Patrick Ruffini bucks the CW this morning and says it’s Mitt’s race to lose, especially if McCain upsets him in New Hampshire. How so? Well, if Huckabee takes Iowa and Captain Amnesty pulls a surprise in NH, the 65% of us who are neither evangelical nor cavalier about the border will be desperate for a consensus candidate to deliver us from the prospect of a Huck-Mac showdown on Super Ultra Mega Tuesday. Mitt, being well funded and sort of conservative, is the obvious choice. Fred, being decidedly conservative but less well funded and having run a poor campaign, is the alternative. If McCain knocks off Mitt, leaving him 0 for 2 in the states he staked his campaign on winning, it’ll leave him smelling like a loser and make Fred the Great Anti-RINO Hope in the race by default. The problem is, Mitt has enough of a war chest to stay in the race through February no matter what happens, raising the distressing prospect of he and Fred competing for social con votes in South Carolina with Huckabee the obvious beneficiary. Probably the best outcome from the anti-Huck perspective is Fred losing big in Iowa, Mitt winning New Hampshire, and Fred dropping out and endorsing Mitt to make him the great conservative hope. Not sure where that puts Rudy except hoping against hope that Mitt and Huck split the social con vote in Florida so that he can squeak through. […]