McCain in NH: Qui Bono?
by Patrick Ruffini :: December 26th, 2007 11:06 pmI’ve been pretty harsh towards Rudy’s rope-a-dope strategy lately. Does McCain’s surge in New Hampshire and the possibility of Romney losing both early contests cause me to revisit?
Yes and no. The prospect of a Huckabee-McCain victory in the first two contests scrambles the field, opening things up slightly for the Mayor. But ultimately I expect that McCain becomes the de-facto national frontrunner the morning after a New Hampshire win, and the race will be on to find the “Stop McCain” alternative. Chuck Todd outlined the beginnings of this scenario on Hardball tonight. If McCain finishes third in Iowa, the media will slingshot him to a win in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, it’s a short hop to Michigan, where Democrats can freely participate in the GOP primary (Obama and Edwards won’t appear on MI’s beauty contest ballot). Let’s recall McCain’s 2000 percentages in contested primaries using 2008’s calendar (via the US Election Atlas):
NH 1/8 - 48.45% (won)
MI 1/15 - 49.15% (won)
SC 1/19 - 41.96% (lost)
CA 2/5 - 42.87% (lost)
McCain has a track record of getting at least 40% of the vote in key nominating states where 30% will probably be enough for a win in 2008. He has legs in Michigan and South Carolina, and potentially in Florida, where I would expect Gov. Charlie Crist to make good on his long-delayed endorsement (which basically fell by the wayside when McCain ran aground earlier in 2007). On February 5th, he would be in a strong position in California — a position amplified by the state’s by-Congressional District delegate allocation in which a win in a heavily Latino district with a few thousand GOP voters counts as much for a win in John Campbell’s Orange County district (so, McCain’s immigration stance could net him lots of delegates). This path to the nomination would not have worked as the full-frontal assault planned by John Weaver, but in a scrambled field with the media manufacturing momentum on McCain’s behalf, it should be taken seriously.
That doesn’t mean I expect McCain to win. A “Stop McCain” alternative will rise. Perhaps Rudy is banking on this being him. I tend to think it will be Mitt Romney, as there will be a premium placed on a safer, more well-financed alternative who can capture the right. Provided he can avoid elimination in Iowa and New Hampshire (in other words, a devastating double-digit loss in both states). The media would have the race it expected back in January.
Allowing McCain to win New Hampshire would probably be more dangerous to Rudy than a narrow Romney win. The ideal scenario for him would be Huckabee by 5 in Iowa, Romney by 5 in New Hampshire. No real momentum is generated. The field is still scrambled. And McCain fails to accomplish the central mission of his campaign and is walking wounded.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve received more-than-sporadic emails from early and serious Rudy supporters ready to jump ship to McCain, largely to stop Romney. McCain is dangerous to Rudy because Rudy’s votes are directly transferable to McCain in a way they aren’t to any other candidate. If momentum shifts to one, the other one suffers. On the other hand, this bloc of secular, center-right GOP voters is somewhat immune to Romney and Huckabee momentum and in fact could be galvanized by it.
Tagged: john mccain 
mitt romney rudy giuliani strategy
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You McCain folks need to get a grip on it, I was a real McCain supporter until he threw in with the likes of Feingold, Kennedy, and the other Demmies. He baffles us common folk with his immigration stance, his attack on Bushes tax program, and he’s been like so many others in the Seante…. too long. At one time was a helluva senator, like the others he gets caught up in his own personna, time for him to go . Mac Arthur said it best “Old soldiers never die, they just fade away” time for him to fade. Have a good day and God Bless America
If it’s McCain that means it’s Hillary as POTUS. Like Dole in ‘96, waiting his turn to get pounded by the Clintons, McCain is the media’s candidate for the Repubican nomination.
Tim Russert, Chris Matthews, Bob Schieffer, George Stepawhatshisface, have all long been pulling for the “moderate” McCain.
He’s their idea of what a Republican should be: a closet Democrat.
McCain’s been sticking it to the Republican Party for years: the S&L scandal, Teddy’s good budy, the gang of 14, his attempt to pass amnesty with the Dems in the middle of a weekend night…
Some of us have long memories. If he’s the nominee I vote third party, so will millions of others.
What exactly do you consider yourself to be I know what we McCainiacs consider you to be, but we want to know what you consider yourself to be? I know it’s not a political advisor,analist,strategist or commentator because you don’t know enough about politics for it to be any of those and I think the only fan that you really have to read your commentaries is you. “Oh” and the reason that I am here is just like the other time I drew the short straw.