The 2000 NH Exit Poll
by Patrick Ruffini :: December 31st, 2007 5:20 pmBecause we seem to be headed for a replay of the same dynamic that prevailed in the early 2000 primaries, I thought it would be helpful to go back and take a second look at the exit poll from the ‘00 NH primary, which John McCain won by 18 points — 48.5% to 30.3% for then-Governor George W. Bush.
My recent posts notwithstanding, McCain looks to me like the prohibitive favorite in the Granite State. I was in New Hampshire for Bush. The night before, the race leaned slightly to McCain. In their weak moments, the volunteers on the guessed we’d fall short by 3 or 4 points. We lost by 18. There was a hidden vote for McCain on primary day that counted for as much as 15 points.
McCain will not get 49 percent — the also-rans are stronger this time — but 40 or 45 percent is not out of the question. To see why, we need only look to McCain’s amazing strength among virtually every subgroup in the 2000 primary, and the overall composition of the New Hampshire GOP electorate. In stark contrast to rest of the nation, it is very difficult for a candidate running as a conservative to win a Republican primary in the Northeast. McCain won every New England state except Maine against Bush in 2000, even Bush’s ancestral Connecticut.
With Obama failing to close the sale and McCain surging, independents will vote in large numbers in the Republican primary. After Romney’s increasingly likely victory in Iowa, the best I suspect he’ll be able to do is claim that as his “conference championship” win to advance to the finals, and raise a cloud of dust to limit the damage in New Hampshire. As Bush discovered in 2000 and Bob Dole discovered in ‘96, New Hampshire is strange and an outlier.
Here is a reminder of the scope of McCain’s win in New Hampshire, by the numbers:
- McCain won every county and all but a handful of small towns.
- McCain ran stronger among men, 57 percent of the primary electorate, winning by 50 to 28 percent.
- He won voters over 60 with 52 percent, and those over 65 with 54 percent. The formidable Mike Dennehy turnout operation has the blessing of being able to mobilize seniors, the highest-propensity voting group, who already identify with John McCain.
- He won college graduates, 52 percent of the electorate, by nearly 2-to-1, 53 to 28 percent.
- Barely 53 percent of the electorate “affiliated” with the Republican Party — though more were registered — and McCain took 38 percent of this most-conservative half of the electorate, running just three points behind Bush.
- Just 51 percent of GOP primary voters considered themselves conservative (that’s compared to 73 percent in the 2000 Iowa Caucuses). McCain edged Bush 37-35 percent with conservatives.
- McCain won 48 percent of Pat Buchanan voters.
- McCain won registered Republicans 44-35. That’s right: had this been a closed primary, McCain still would have won by nearly 10 points.
The underlying demographics are also tough for a Mitt Romney or a Mike Huckabee:
- Just 16 percent of voters considered themselves “religious right” — that number was 37 percent in Iowa.
- 20 percent were Born Again or Evangelical.
- Just 36 percent attended religious services weekly or more. 42 percent of voters nationally fell into this category, both Republican and Democrat. One imagines the number was well north of 50 percent for Bush voters.
What’s changed since 2000? For one thing, New Hampshire has become more Democratic as the footprint of Metro Boston continues to expand. The Republican Party has shrunk, leaving the GOP primary more apt to be influenced by independents. If anything, these unfolding trends only reinforce the likelihood of a McCain blowout on January 8th.
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What’s changed since 2000? For one thing, New Hampshire has become more Democratic as the footprint of Metro Boston continues to expand. The Republican Party has shrunk, leaving the GOP primary more apt to be influenced by independents.
Thus, Ron Paul might get 10-12% (possibly 15% and a 2nd place finish?)
(He also has a bigger “bank” than any other GOP casndidate…)
An Obama IA win would peel off indies from the NH primary. I also think Mitt’s support is at this point pretty “sticky”; unlike Dubya’s soft ‘00 allegiances.
One factual misconception is that SE NH has shifted the state left. It hasn’t–Hillsborough and Rockingham counties voted Bush in ‘00 and ‘04 and stuck with Benson when he lost in in ‘04. The rural part of the state outside commuting range to metro Boston has shifted left quickly since the turn of the century as small town New England becomes more Ben & Jerry’s and less Calvin Coolidge
The other thing you fail to mention is what does it mean for after NH? Unlike in 2000 McCain has the establishment in SC this time around. He is going to follow up NH with a repeat of his Michigan Victory and a win in SC. After that it’s the nomination and the presidency. I agree with the other poster that Ron Paul may come in second in NH but I think the more likely outcome is he will show (i.e. third place).
I don’t remember exactly how things played out in NH during 2000 - but wasn’t Bradley pretty much finished after Iowa - so more independents voted on the GOP side - rather than the Democratic side?
If that were the case - I’d say there’s a lot more “excitement” on the Democratic side this year - so those independents will likely flock to them.
While McCain will probably still win - I don’t think it will be as big as it was in 2000.
You also need to remember that many Democrats and Independents voted the Michigan primary in 2000 - specifically to “embarrass” Engler, who as Gov. and state chair for Bush predicted a Bush win. Not so this time around.
Can you really compare this campaign with 2000? McCain is the same person but a different candidate. He’s running in support of a war that didn’t exist in 2000. And that war is very unpopular in New Hampshire even among Republicans. He’s not proposing campaign finance reform, and he’s defending an unpopular stand on immigration reform which isn’t likely to appeal to Pat Buchanan supporters. He’s been surging lately, but will that continue for another week or might he hit a snag? There are too many imponderables here to call the race for McCain let alone to claim that it will be a blowout.
And how might Iowa affect New Hampshire? Historically, Iowa hasn’t provided much of a boost in New Hampshire. A Huckabee win in Iowa won’t likely help him much in New Hampshire because he hasn’t campaigned there. But if Ron Paul should finish third in Iowa, it could boost his credibility as a candidate in NH, and he could pull independents away from McCain. Likewise, a poor showing by McCain in Iowa could blunt his surge in NH.
[…] Posted by Matt Zeitlin on January 5, 2008 If you pay attention to the media CW these days, you’ll know that coming out of Iowa, the most likely match up is between the Democrat who finished first by a large margin, and the Republican who finished fourth. Assuming for a moment that McCain is the prohibitive favorite, one of the emerging dynamics in a potential Obama/McCain race would be the age factor. While when you just look at the two candidates, it seems clear who can best evoke change and youthful energy, it’s worth remembering that before McCain transformed himself into a GOP-base panderer, he was very popular among young people. He has appeared on the Daily Show several times and is one of Jon Stewart’s favorite politicians. In his “maverick” days, he always polled well among young people, and in the New Hampshire primary in 2000, he absolutely cleaned the floor with the youth vote. Add on the fact that much of the media seems convinced McCain is a bold truth-teller and change-agent, and the competition for youth energy might be pretty even. If the GOP were to nominate any other candidate besides McCain, all of those who want “change” in the political process would definitely go for Obama. […]