Rudy On the Brink

As stunning as the Huckster’s rise and McCain’s slow comeback has been Rudy’s collapse nationally and in the states he needed to maintain plausibility for February 5th.

Let’s review what happened today:

• Rasmussen: Huckabee leading in Florida. Rudy in third.
• Detroit News: McCain leading in Michigan.
• Rasmussen: Giuliani at 19% nationally, down from 27% two weeks ago.
• Meanwhile, Romney is clearing the 15% threshold post-speech.

The fascinating thing is that the much-predicted social issue rebellion isn’t happening. Rudy had his huge social issues fight last spring. He was bruised from it, but by clearing the decks in Houston, he was able to recover. If the current shift from Rudy has any catalyzing event, it might have been the NYPD story. That makes sense on one level — voters can more readily dissect a personal narrative than a policy debate, even over partial-birth abortions. At the same time, Rudy’s slide has coincided with the broader Huckaboom, which has been especially punishing on the Mayor’s poll numbers. The likability-minded conservatives who kept Rudy at improbable highs for so long are finally jumping ship.

Perhaps this is the perfect storm, with a salacious Rudy story providing an opening for Huckabee to drive right through. But I think another big reason for this predicament is encoded in this press release I received from Team Rudy at 3:43 PM today:

New York City – Mayor Rudy Giuliani released the following statement on the President signing the United States-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement Implementation Act:

“The Peru Free Trade Agreement is an important step forward in our nation’s effort to open up new markets for American exports. But this agreement is just one of the four Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that have been submitted to Congress. The remaining three FTAs would also open new markets to U.S. companies and should be approved. Congress should also immediately renew the President’s Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), so the U.S. can effectively negotiate and conclude other agreements that improve the standard of living for all Americans. Unfortunately, Democratic leaders in Congress have debated and repeatedly delayed votes on these agreements and have refused to grant the President TPA, placing partisan politics before the interests of American businesses and working families.”

We are 19 days from Iowa. And we are seeing releases about a United States-Peru trade agreement? When all the energy on this issue is probably on the other side? There is probably some Iowa-agribusiness component I am missing here, but… Peru?

That, in a nutshell, is Rudy’s problem. He is too wonkish for his own good. His answers at debates sometimes wander into the circular minutae. That would be forgivable if he mixed it up with memorable one-liners. But his only truly memorable performances in debates have been his on-stage muggings of Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, which displayed his classic toughness but did little to endear him to primary voters.

His “12 Commitments” was symbolic of a slow-burn, play-it-safe, run-out-the-clock frontrunner strategy. While each of the planks allowed him to make news over an extended period, none were spectacularly groundbreaking. And he had twelve, none of which we can remember.

His red meat lines are limited to fiscal issues (mostly taxes) and health care. While important (and successful in endearing him to the fiscal conservative groups), these are not voting issues in a Republican primary. His attempts to educate people about his New York successes brought out the 9/10 Rudy, not the Churchillian, larger-than-life post-9/11 Rudy.

I’ll give this to John McCain. I still find him utterly unacceptable, but the guy knows how to play to his strengths — the war, corruption/earmarks, electability, global warming, and even somewhat shamelessly plugging his POW years. That’s all the dude ever talks about. A similarly focused Rudy Giuliani would never even breathe a word about anything except the following: national security, electability, and the toughness to defeat the terrorists and the Democrats.

Even now, the argument from Rudy’s perspective is clear: he’s the only one who can win the primary and general elections. It’s an argument with considerable power amidst the craziness that is now the Republican race. Are we really, seriously going to go up against Hillary with a FairTax supporter who is completely untested in national politics? Do you really beat the most processed, inauthentic candidate in modern times with a slick Clintonesque figure of your own? Or someone like John McCain who only wins on loopholes (I got a memo from John Yob today bragging about no Dem primary in Michigan) and channels Al Gore on global warming?

Rudy can still win, in the sense that this race is so crazy open right now that anyone can win. This is not his political obituary. But things have pretty seriously slipped away from him in the last three weeks, and unlike Hillary he has no margin for error and never did. His down arrows need to flip to up arrows — and fast.

With 23 shopping days till New Hampshire, will Rudy finally find his narrative arc in his much touted (if oddly scheduled) Roger Mudd speech tomorrow?

Tagged: 2008 rudy giuliani strategy

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