Momentum vs. Organization

by Patrick Ruffini :: January 1st, 2008 9:47 pm

There has been a fair amount of discussion about the role of organization in Iowa. We had a similar discussion four years ago. Going into Caucus Day, Kerry and Edwards had the momentum, and Dean and Gephardt had the organization. We all saw how that one turned out.

Caucus organization, specially on the Republican side, is a different beast than election day GOTV. I wonder if its importance isn’t overplayed to some extent. Unlike a regular election, you only have one shot at turning people out to a Caucus. You can’t dispatch door-knockers to a precinct that’s underperforming at 4 p.m. If you don’t turn people out at 6:30 p.m., you’re out of luck. You can only make your final phone calls, do your final door knocks, and… hope.

So, unless the Romney campaign is providing babysitters and DVDs of the Kansas-Virginia Tech game, I would discount any predictions of an inbuilt 3 to 5 point advantage for any candidate.

Of course, it’s so totally unclear who has the momentum right now, so it’s anyone’s guess who benefits from this dynamic.

Tagged: grassroots iowa organization

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Ali A. Akbar says:
It’s far-stretching to say the least that organization and momentum are contrary or ‘verse’ each other. Also, Dean had both, not just organization. In fact, we watched his organization crumble.
He shoots. He misses.
# January 2nd, 2008 at 4:25 pm