McCain Cakewalk?
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 11th, 2008 11:03 amIf John McCain is somehow prevented from winning the nomination, it won’t be because of his fellow candidates.
Last night, the rest of the field refused to lay a glove on McCain. Many conservatives I talk to still assume he will fall of his own weight. And, truth be told, the other campaigns’ visceral dislike of Mitt Romney is blinding them to the need for a strong voice to articulate the conservative base’s deep distrust of McCain.
For McCain, a seemingly impossible confluence of events have had the effect of parting the waters for his previously treacherous path to the nomination.
First, McCain emerged from the back of the pack. The conservative establishment didn’t know if this was serious or not, so they didn’t organize. At the outset, Romney probably found this useful to knock off Rudy in NH. Then Rudy decided he didn’t have the warewithal to challenge his friend McCain in a pro-choice, Northeastern state.
In Iowa too, Huckabee used McCain as a club to bash Romney. Romney only started attacking McCain in late December, and then only on McCain’s home field of New Hampshire.
Okay, I can see letting New Hampshire slip. That happened in 2000. But certainly South Carolina could be counted on finish him off for us. Is McCain getting any heat there?
Not much.
Mitt Romney has to save himself first, and he’s doing that in Michigan. That probably necessitates a pivot to a more positive message. Like other cash-strapped candidates, he’s counting on Huckabee to finish the job in SC. It’s also probably too late for any 527s to get going.
The paradox here is that while a McCain loss is more likely in South Carolina, Huckabee is the candidate most likely to let McCain off the ropes. Like Rudy, he seems to be running for Mr. Congeniality at times. Huckabee’s path to the nomination lies in convincing conservatives why John McCain was so unacceptable to them to begin with. He has to make a decision about whether he’s running for President or Vice President.
As for Rudy, if he gets to make the case in Florida, his tax argument is a good start, but it’s not enough. Rudy will need to make the case that he has the temperament to be Commander-in-Chief — and be willing to get personal in the way that McCain already has with Bernie Kerik and the 9/11 swiftboats.
FDT is in many ways the most natural person to make the case — with the most conservative movement credentials of any candidate — but it’s hard to tell if he’s still in it or is just a sleeper cell for his Washington buddy McCain, siphoning votes away from Huckabee in South Carolina.
The other candidates personally like McCain. Their staff tend to be more moderate than the GOP primary electorate, so they many have trouble seeing just how dispirited the base would be with McCain as the nominee, particularly if Obama manages to pull it out, but also against Hillary.
It’s time to take the gloves off. If you assume that McCain can still lose this, it’s a matter of driving straight down the fairway to Minneapolis-St. Paul. If you assume he’ll still be the nominee, it’s a matter of testing whether conservatives can set aside some pretty serious objections to a likely nominee.
If conservative distrust of McCain still isn’t as big a deal as I think it is, so be it. But the nomination is too serious to approach this with anything but eyes wide open. We can’t afford to get buyer’s remose — of the kind we’ve already had with McCain for most of the last eight years — particularly as he tacks left against the Democrats and his general election numbers sink back to where they were when he was last under attack in the spring.
Primaries and the sharp jabs that come with them are good for the process. They ensure we have a nominee who is thoroughly vetted. The last thing we need is what happened to the Democrats in 2004, when Kerry emerged at the last minute, wasn’t tested, and turned out to be a horrible candidate in the general.
Tagged: 2008 
john mccain strategy
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As a Rudy supporter, I wish he’d gone after McCain a bit last night. Not harp on him, but jeez, at least take a shot. Something like,
“We all respect Senator McCain, but let’s throw down some straight talk for a minute:
After 20+years in the Senate, Senator McCain will be best remembered for McCain-Feingold and Kennedy-McCain? Is that the record of a leader?
After 8 years as Mayor of NY, I am remembered for cutting crime x%, cutting welfare rolls y%, and cutting taxes n times. I led the largest city back from the brink.
Look at what I did, and you’ll see what I’ll do as President: cut taxes, battle global terror, and stomp on stupid ideas coming from the liberal Democratic Congress. I’ll get things done.
If you look at McCain’s 20+years in the Senate, does it inspire confidence that his priorities are yours? And that he can accomplish your goals?”
sadly, Mitt’s stale political hack attacks have soured the other camps on doing appropriate contrast on Mac.
BTW, how is it the guy who could keeping buying second places until he got nominated in St. Paul allowed his screen to go dark in SC after sinking millions in buying infrastructure for the primary?
It seems the DC political establishment bought that Mitt was able to run a professional campaign and thus far, they have bet wrong
Patrick,
I think you’re wrong about McCain not firing up the base in the General (at least relative to the other options).
1. Rudy - will cause the So-Cons to despair if he is nominated
2. Huckabee - will cause the Fis-Cons to despair if he is nominated (both the budget hawks and tax hawks)
3. Thompson - will cause the whole GOP to despair when they realize that he’s meandering approach nabs nearly zero independents and democrats
4. Romney - Dennis Miller called him “too slick by half” and I think most of America agrees
Even for hardliners, McCain is usually the 2nd or 3rd choice (there are some outliers like you Patrick and Quinn Hillyer on the Spectator). McCain is the candidate who preserves the Reagan coalition and wins the General Election. I think you should note the head-to-head polls. McCain does far better than all the others nearly everywhere especially in key states like Ohio. No other GOP candidate gets earned media like McCain, and this is a critical, critical parameter in 2008 for the GOP with the depressed fund-raising. If McCain gets the nomination, his speech at the convention is going to knock your socks off, and the GOP will board the McCain train.
I don’t think this is true of you Patrick, but there are a lot of elements of the elite GOP that would rather keep their power in a losing party than lose their power in a winning GOP.
My response:
Too long for a post!
http://dianegollaher.townhall.com/g/e0fb711d-afcf-4c6a-8fb0-6e2909db022d
I (and my blog) can’t get tired about my own prediction, published before South Carolina primary:
John McCain & Rudy Giuliani: President & Vice President 2008
My bookmaker will hate me even more than ever…
Way to go: Good luck to all! 
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