McCain’s National Lead
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 14th, 2008 5:20 amSo much for Iowa and New Hampshire not mattering this year.
McCain 33
Huckabee 18
Giuliani 10
Romney 8
Thompson 8
Paul 3
McCain 28
Huckabee 20
Romney 19
Giuliani 15
Thompson 8
Paul 5
Rudy has been trying sell people on the idea that is a “unique” year. The only thing that’s unique about it is that voters nationally waited for Iowa & New Hampshire to winnow the field for them. This is exactly what happened in 2004 for the Democrats.
In primaries, people vote for the candidate in their comfort zone with a real chance to win.
In the early stages, when people actually weighed the different alternatives and came to wildly disparate conclusions. You’d see blog comment threads with people taking very seriously the decision between Fred, Rudy, McCain, etc. I can guarantee you that none of that is happening now. People are defaulting to their third and fourth choice candidates when they can see that their top choices have no prayer. Voters are very strategic this way.
Take a look at this shift:
WHO IS MOST ELECTABLE IN NOVEMBER?
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
Now 12/07
McCain 41% 7%
Huckabee 14 13
Giuliani 12 43
Romney 9 18
Thompson 3 3
D/K 18 13
Why this dramatic movement? Because McCain has won, and in politics, you win by winning not retreating. Winning or exceeding expectations in primaries is seen as a proxy for victory in the fall. This is why Kerry was seen as the most “electable” when Edwards was in point of fact the most electable. Ditto for Bush-McCain in ‘00.
McCain is now aggregating two-thirds to three-quarters of the McCain-Rudy bloc, inverting polling from most of the year. Either’s path to the nomination was always going to mean disqualifying the other. McCain is doing it.
On the conservative side, we see a still fragmented field with a Huckabee ceiling in the low twenties. Even with momentum, Huck has trouble breaking 15% anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon. This has greatly complicated Mitt Romney’s strategy of becoming the conservative default by forging an alliance between the establishment and social conservatives.
McCain is sitting pretty right now because the “conservative alternative” represents maybe half the movement. This is not a diss on social conservatives taking their place as leaders in the party. In fact, the Huck strategy is working out better than the Rudy strategy of trying to do it just with economic conservatives. Never before has there been a clearer need for a candidate authentically conservative on both social and economic issues. The trouble is that we don’t have a candidate like that who satisfies the “who can win” (in the primary) requirement right now.
What would it take for McCain to lose this lead? A lot more than it would have taken a week ago. Team Romney has taken solace in a series of Michigan polls showing them ahead. The problem is that Michigan will not inspire the wall-to-wall coverage of IA/NH, so there’s not as big a bounce to be had. Knocking McCain back down to earth would probably take a series of disappointing second or thirds in Michigan, in South Carolina, and in Florida. And even then, it will be at the hands of different winners, so it’s not clear who get momentum at his expense.
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“Never before has there been a clearer need for a candidate authentically conservative on both social and economic issues.”
Wasn’t that why Fred Thompson was wooed to run last summer?
McCain needs Michigan. It might not get quite as much coverage as Ia or NH, but it’s got a lot more delegates than they do and will be a big shot in the arm. Besides, lots of Dems and independents are voting for McCain. There’s no serious Dem race. Romney already wins overwhelmingly among Mich. Republicans. If McCain can’t win with Dem support, he’ll have even greater difficulty without it.
A Mich loss will also break McCain’s momentum in South Carolina and boost Huckabee’s chances there.
Romney needs a win in Mich to stay alive and Huckabee needs a win in South Carolina to regain the lead. But McCain victories in NH and Mich could propel him into the lead in S. Carolina and a victory there could cement Fla for him. Then we could be facing a McCain juggernaut on Feb 5. I should certainly not hope for this. Next to Giuliani, McCain is the last person I want to see nominated. Go Romney!
[…] Here’s a more accurate description of will probably happen, compliments of Patrick Ruffini: What would it take for McCain to lose this lead? A lot more than it would have taken a week ago. Team Romney has taken solace in a series of Michigan polls showing them ahead. The problem is that Michigan will not inspire the wall-to-wall coverage of IA/NH, so there’s not as big a bounce to be had. Knocking McCain back down to earth would probably take a series of disappointing second or thirds in Michigan, in South Carolina, and in Florida. And even then, it will be at the hands of different winners, so it’s not clear who get momentum at his expense. […]