Vote for Huckabee
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 18th, 2008 4:01 pm (Not an endorsement.)
The final South Carolina numbers are showing McCain with a slight edge, with Fox pegging him at +7, Zogby at +7, and InsiderAdvantage at a tie. The RCP average is McCain +4.2.
The poll also shows Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson at 26-28 percent of the vote between them, with each holding about 13 percent. Between them, conservative candidates who are not John McCain are polling at 50 percent of the vote in the Palmetto State to McCain’s 26 percent.
I think it’s time to have a serious discussion about Romney and Thompson supporters switching to Huckabee to prevent McCain from getting momentum.
There is a serious chance that the race could effectively end with a McCain victory in SC, in the same way the Dem race probably ended with New Hampshire and past Republican races ended in the same state. With a South Carolina victory, McCain would have a slight advantage going into Florida. Winning Florida and effectively taking Rudy out of the race would then let him run the tables in the big Feb. 5 blue states, starting with California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. not to mention all the red states where he is tied with Mike Huckabee, whom he will have beaten on his home turf.
You may hate Mike Huckabee. You may even dislike him more than John McCain. But without him winning tomorrow night, your guy’s path to victory becomes a whole lot harder.
Letting Huckabee win isn’t as dangerous as letting McCain win. Huckabee victories aren’t convertible to momentum in the same way McCain ones are (just look at the post-IA and NH bounces). He is running below his poll numbers on Intrade for a reason, and that’s because he has a hard ceiling of support. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t win in Minneapolis in a McGovern-like squeaker, but the possibility is remote.
If you’re a Romney or a Rudy guy, this is a relative no-brainer. This will be tougher for FredHeads, since their guy has made a stand in the state. But with less than 24 hours to go, and Fred running no better than a weak third, it is probably time to face facts. It’s too bad, because conservatives deserve Fred Thompson as a choice, but it just doesn’t seem to be happening.
So if you live in South Carolina, vote for Mike Huckabee so that the rest of the country has a chance to vote for your guy on January 29th and February 5th.
Tagged: john mccain 
mike huckabee strategy
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This is as pleasant a thought as serving on a convoy to Murmansk in 1943
Can you think of any other candidate who could have Phil Gramm, Jack Kemp, Tom Coburn and Joe Lieberman supporting him. Fact is, John McCain is the most qualified and best candidate the Republicans have to offer in this election (and the last). He is the only person ready to assume the mantle of Commander in Chief on day 1 and with the likes of Jack Kemp and Phil Gramm, I am more than confident of his economic platform. Keeping the Bush tax cuts and lowering the corporate tax rate sounds good to me. When he wins tomorrow Patrick and the rest of you can start to jump on the bandwagon because victory will only be right around the corner.
I strongly disagree! That Tom Coburn, for whatever misguided reasons, sold-out on true conservatism and supported McCain - even though McCain has done as much harm to conservatism as Teddy Kennedy - is no reason to waste a vote on McCain.
The conservative Governor of SC wisely to stay out of the endorsement business, Coburn and the others should have done the same. (BTW: Less than 1 year ago McCain said that he would endorse Fred - McCain’s ego once again trumped his integrity.)
And no, there is no need for any good conservative to waste a vote on Huckabee to block McCain.
Romney and Rudy both abandoned SC - they have not earned the votes of Republicans there - therefore their votes should go to Fred.
All of the reports on the ground in SC tell a unified story - that there is a never-seen-before surge for Fred. If anything, a surprise showing for Fred in SC could derail both McCain and Huckabee. A “perfect storm”.
McCain-the-arrogant has declared himself the certain winner there (unless he has packed the ballot boxes he has no way to know that), and Huckabee-self-annointed-candidate-of-God has also declared himself the certain winner.
A win by Fred would show McCain to be wrong - yet again - and would prove that Huckabee is not hearing from God but from Ed Rollins.
Vote for the best candidate - do not sell-out in SC!
Vote FRED!
We have to look forward, people. McCain drives me up the wall on many issues, but he is still infinitely better than either of the Dems’ Big Two(Edwards is a non-issue). Elections are nearly always about choosing the lesser of two evils. We can hold out for perfection and purity, and lose–or vote pragmatically and maybe win. Let’s not cut off our noses to spite our faces. It’s too important.
Agree with everything you have said Patrick. IMO if McCain were to win, we would not have a Republican candidate as he sponsors more bills with the Dems then Republicans. Bet he would name LIEberman as the VP and probably have more Dems in the cabinet then Republicans. Have never figured out why McCain has not switched parties since he thought about running with Kerry. Maybe he will ask Kerry to be his VP — no one knows that way McCain loves to shove it in the face of Republicans.
When is the Republican Party going to do something about states that allow Dems to vote in the GOP primary?