Vote for Huckabee
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 18th, 2008 4:01 pm (Not an endorsement.)
The final South Carolina numbers are showing McCain with a slight edge, with Fox pegging him at +7, Zogby at +7, and InsiderAdvantage at a tie. The RCP average is McCain +4.2.
The poll also shows Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson at 26-28 percent of the vote between them, with each holding about 13 percent. Between them, conservative candidates who are not John McCain are polling at 50 percent of the vote in the Palmetto State to McCain’s 26 percent.
I think it’s time to have a serious discussion about Romney and Thompson supporters switching to Huckabee to prevent McCain from getting momentum.
There is a serious chance that the race could effectively end with a McCain victory in SC, in the same way the Dem race probably ended with New Hampshire and past Republican races ended in the same state. With a South Carolina victory, McCain would have a slight advantage going into Florida. Winning Florida and effectively taking Rudy out of the race would then let him run the tables in the big Feb. 5 blue states, starting with California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. not to mention all the red states where he is tied with Mike Huckabee, whom he will have beaten on his home turf.
You may hate Mike Huckabee. You may even dislike him more than John McCain. But without him winning tomorrow night, your guy’s path to victory becomes a whole lot harder.
Letting Huckabee win isn’t as dangerous as letting McCain win. Huckabee victories aren’t convertible to momentum in the same way McCain ones are (just look at the post-IA and NH bounces). He is running below his poll numbers on Intrade for a reason, and that’s because he has a hard ceiling of support. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t win in Minneapolis in a McGovern-like squeaker, but the possibility is remote.
If you’re a Romney or a Rudy guy, this is a relative no-brainer. This will be tougher for FredHeads, since their guy has made a stand in the state. But with less than 24 hours to go, and Fred running no better than a weak third, it is probably time to face facts. It’s too bad, because conservatives deserve Fred Thompson as a choice, but it just doesn’t seem to be happening.
So if you live in South Carolina, vote for Mike Huckabee so that the rest of the country has a chance to vote for your guy on January 29th and February 5th.
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Tagged: john mccain 
mike huckabee strategy
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