No Tactical Voting in SC
by Patrick Ruffini :: January 20th, 2008 1:16 amThe scenario I laid out yesterday came to pass in South Carolina, with John McCain emerging victorious against a conservative field divided three ways, a field that was two parts Huckabee, one part Thompson, and one part Romney. Had just 20% of Mitt Romney’s voters voted tactically for Mike Huckabee, McCain would have been denied this needed momentum boost going into Florida and probably the nomination.
Despite the different actors and alliances in different states, we are beginning to see the real dividing lines of this campaign. It’s the battle of the moderates (McCain), metro conservatives (Romney), and rural conservatives (Huckabee). Stripped of all other hangers-on (Fred, and increasingly, Rudy), nationwide this divide seems to work out to about 40-40-20, or 35-40-25. Conservatives ought to be winning this battle, but Huckabee’s lock on the rural vote (just 16% of the vote in Charleston County, btw) will prevent any kind of clear two-man race before February 5th. Every day that Huckabee’s nice guy act is allowed to continue is a gift to John McCain — and he knows it.
Mitt Romney is fast becoming the candidate of conservatives in the suburbs and the exurbs. In Michigan, he dominated Oakland and Macomb counties with 46% of the vote in a multi-candidate field. In Nevada, he won most convincingly in Clark County. In Iowa, he did better in Des Moines than elsewhere in the state.
The Romney and McCain coalitions also overlap. They represent two different sides of the establishment coin, with McCain representing an older, mainline establishment — the Republican Party of Gerry Ford, Howard Baker, and Bob Dole — and Romney representing the brasher, post-Reagan establishment that was built on the tax issue and whose alliance with modern-day Huckabee voters allowed them to take control of the party in 1994.
Though vastly different in terms of ideology, the Romney and McCain people are still both the establishment — and they alternate control of state chairmanships, RNC seats, county committees, etc. It is perhaps not so surprising that the McCain camp reported that 45% of Romney “ones” in New Hampshire were also McCain “twos.” At the end of the day, McCain and Romney voters look more like each other than they do the Huckabee vote.
Tonight, the Romney and McCain vote at the county level in South Carolina was positively correlated at a mild but statistically recognizable level of 0.16 — a sign of their mutual strength in coastal resort counties. Both McCain and Romney overperformed in key establishment subgroups: Romney did better with pro-choice voters than pro-life voters, he pulled nearly twice as many votes among those not born in South Carolina (a key group for McCain in 2000 that he won more mutedly tonight), and also finished second amongst non-Evangelical voters, which McCain dominated. Despite all this, Romney did better amongst conservatives than non-conservatives, which by process of elimination leaves him particularly strong with the more secular, fiscally minded right.
The trouble for McCain is although he has probably secured the moderate berth in the finals (sorry, Rudy), he hasn’t made many inroads with the base and his vote still looks decidedly unlike what that of a GOP nominee should look like. To say that conservative South Carolinians somehow embraced McCain is to ignore the fact that McCain lost conservatives, pro-lifers, and Evangelicals, and eeked it out against the most divided field to date.
With Romney’s suburban base secure, for McCain to start racking up victory margins in the 40s — which he’ll need as candidates fade or drop out — he’d need to add votes from the Christian conservative base — from supporters of walking wounded like Huck and Fred. Because of their candidates’ personal animosities towards Romney, that is a distinct possibility that such an alliance could be forged — but it would be an alliance of opposites — of pro-life and pro-choice, of liberal and conservative, of secular and evangelical. I don’t know if conservatives are going to overlook that fact.
In the traditional middle of this fight is Mitt Romney, who strives to represent a sort of Goldilocks conservatism. The question is if center is big enough to hold this year.
On to Florida.
Tagged: john mccain 
mitt romney strategy
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I read this analysis on Hugh Hewitt’s blog and came over here to email you. It is very interesting stuff.
I am a Fred supporter and truly wish he would ‘catch on’, but I will vote for any of the Republican candidates. Some I will ‘hold my nose’ and pull the lever, but I will vote R. I am a fiscal and social conservative and also consider myself an evangelical. I do not agree with Rudy on social issues at all, but if he is the candidate, I will vote for Rudy. I do not agree with McCain on several issues (immigration, McCain-Feingold), but will vote for him anyway. I don’t agree with Huckabee on too much other than his social positions, but would vote for him. Romney is my second choice after Fred.
Except…there are a lot of us who do not consider ourselves moderates at all, who are likely to move from Fred! to McCain. I’d say we’re pragmatists, or more accurately, foreign policy hawks who put FP/the war far above all other issues. Romney just hasn’t convinced me that he’s the man to “kill the terrorists, stop the spending, and punch the hippies” (to borrow a Frank J-ism). Also there are a lot who are going for the November win, despite some differences w/r/t certain issues (immigration, McCain-Feingold, whatever).
Not that Romney is objectionable, either–I doubt you’d find many Fred -> McCain voters who would find Romney intolerable.
Like Denise said, I’ll vote for whomever becomes the nominee (except Ron Paul, who’s a joke), because the Democrats are absolutely intolerable. I’d even hold my nose and vote for Huckabee, although I seriously doubt I’ll have to (thank God).
Also, I think this primary season will serve as an educational point for future campaigns, in that trying to campaign with a different strategy, as Rudy and Fred have done, is a losing strategy. It’s a a shame, because both would be stellar as President.
Romney has run a very smart campaign, and that does say something in his favor, to be sure.
Without a viable Fred Thompson, we might as well have a Democrat in the White House. I mean if we’re going to have liberal policies we should at least be able to blame the Democrats for their inevitable failure and maybe spawn another Republican revolution.
I am dreading a Clinton vs. McCain match-up. They are so alike, and so wrong for the country.
If such a contest came to pass, would it be unlawful to encourage people not to vote? I know we have the First Amendment, but would promoting a poll boycott be considered sedition or treason?
In other countries, staying away from the polls has been very effective in sending a message to would-be leaders that they don’t have a mandate. We ought to consider this option.
Assuming the Fred drops out, not a definite thing yet, I will probably go to Romney.
McCain and Huckabee are unacceptable - either would guarantee that Bloomberg and his $1B personal campaign fund gets in and could easily result in the GOP candidate finishing 3rd!
Huckabee is unelectable even without Bloomberg and McCain is highly unlikely to succeed unless the Dem nominee self-destructs.
Paul isn’t a Republican and is hopelessly irrelevant.
Rudy reportedly has an unprecedented GOTV organization in FL and could surprise on election day - the challenges to him are two-fold: Gov. Crist is heavily promoting the tax cut which may drive lazy voters to the polls - those are also media-driven voters. The other is that everyone is pandering to the same issues - falsely (McCain and Huckabee) or not - voters generally lack discernment.
SC proved that star power, media influence, and last minute whining for votes works - we are an Opracized nation (Hillary used that against Oprah’s candidate to manipulate votes in NH, clever and highly intellectually dishonest, but effective - McCain used it in SC).
Rudy has to go at McCain to peel off some of his vote, if he goes after Romney he will give the state to McCain - creating real momentum into super Tuesday.
A strong second by Rudy behind Romney (probably the best he can do) has to come out of McCain and Huckabee voters and not from Romney, or else w may not even have a semi-conservative (Rudy or Romney) left in the race.
[…] 20, 2008 · No Comments Patrick Ruffini sees the leading GOP candidates carrying the banner for three distinct camps inthe Republican Party. […]
[…] No Tactical Voting in South Carolina - Patrick Ruffini The scenario I laid out yesterday came to pass in South Carolina, with John McCain emerging victorious against a conservative field divided three ways. (tags: mccain romney fred_thompson huckabee 2008 south_carolina) Posted at 8:23 AM in On My Radar Save to Del.icio.us Share on Facebook […]