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Looking Beyond 2/5

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 3rd, 2008 11:15 am

It’s quite likely that the Democratic race will drag out beyond Tuesday. The key reason is delegates. The Dems allocate them on a strict proportional basis, so there is no bonus for winning a state by a little. Clinton won Nevada but lost the delegate race 12-13 because of caucus allocations. She won New Hampshire but was tied in delegates 9-9.

Even if Clinton wins most states, and wins California by 6-8 points, she could only up with a delegate lead in the range of 100-200 in a field of 4,049. And though she has a superdelegate advantage, only a small number have so far endorsed. Expect that many of the rest to hold out until the end and bandwagon towards the strongest candidate at the last minute. The march to Denver could be a long one a la Ford-Reagan.

Next week are the Beltway Tuesday primaries with DC, MD, and VA. With strong African American electorates, these should tilt to Obama. In fact, I’ve already seen Obama ads up in the DC market. Expect him to clear 70% of the vote in the District, and carry Baltimore City and Prince George’s counties by similar margins. Virginia is a bit more of a swing state, but it’s an open primary and Republicans can vote. If the Republican race were settled next Tuesday, there would be nothing stopping Republicans and independents from flooding the Democratic primary to mess with the Clintons. Savvy Republicans in the DC suburbs would probably have no compunction about doing this.

Beyond then, I could easily see Obama making up for a small deficit with newly liberated independents and Republicans. The calendar is extended enough that he could probably make an effort to re-register people to vote in closed Democratic primaries in March/April/May states.

Note that even if the Democratic race remains unsettled, I don’t expect it to provide much of an advantage to the Republican nominee. Clinton/Obama would suck all the media oxygen (while the Republican nominee would be ignored), and the winner would get a huge boost at the end. But there is also the chance that one could go negative hard on the other, so it is worth letting their race drag out.

Should the Republican race go on, I’d expect McCain to have an advantage in the next wave of 2/12 primaries because of his moderate/Washington credentials. The next big stops would be delegate-rich Texas and Ohio on March 4th. By this point, Huckabee will probably have thrown in with McCain, testing what a one-on-one conservative vs. moderate race looks like in the most Republican large state of all, Texas. Here, Romney is not hobbled as he is in other Southern states, because his base, metro conservatives, is huge in Texas. Suburban Houston and Dallas is probably relatively hospitable territory for him. In Ohio, Romney would have a chance to reprise his economic success from Michigan.

One way or another, it’s going to be a wild ride.

Tagged: barack obama hillary clinton john mccain mitt romney

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