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Dems Headed to the Convention

by Patrick Ruffini :: February 5th, 2008 5:23 pm

OpenLeft’s Chris Bowers makes a convincing case:

From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75). That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.

Unless Geraghty the Indispensable’s exits tell us that one candidate is crashing and burning tonight, bank on some variant of the above to unfold. That does not mean brokered convention (with two candidates remaining, it’s unlikely), but barring a dramatic momentum shift it means Clinton/Obama will go on at least until Pennsylvania on April 22nd.

The Democrats’ hybrid delegate selection scheme consisting of strict proportional representation for elected delegates combined with superdelegates (designed to thwart a future George McGovern or Jimmy Carter) looks to be headed for a pretty serious trainwreck.

Proportional representation makes it virtually impossible for a candidate winning in the national popular vote by 5-10 points to secure the nomination with popularly selected delegates alone. In many cases, delegate allocation is even stricter than the popular vote share itself, with a 3-point victory in a state resulting in a delegate tie (or Clinton’s six point win in Nevada resulting in more Obama delegates). In some California Congressional districts, the winning candidate must secure 62.5% of the vote to win more delegates. Bottom line: Democrats are about to get schooled in the consequences of “fairness” and “equality.”

This leaves a nomination decided by unelected superdelegates who may not reflect the wishes of primary voters. Or better still, a floor fight to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations (which the non-Clinton candidates withdrew from under false pretenses). The process may well result in an “illegitimate” nominee selected by a brawl over Florida’s votes.

Tagged: barack obama hillary clinton

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