Ruffini’s Dem Delegate Math
by Patrick Ruffini :: February 11th, 2008 11:17 amWith the Democratic race as unsettled as ever, I have put together a spreadsheet with my projections for the remaining primaries and caucuses.
For future contests, I’ve taken into account how nearby states voted and allocate delegates proportionally. In most cases, I could venture a pretty good guess of what I thought the victory margins would be. Feedback is welcome on any of these state numbers, and if you make a strong enough argument, I’ll upload a revised version.
At the end of the primaries, I project 1,607 pledged delegates for Obama and 1,548 for Clinton, leaving 418 and 477 superdelegates respectively left to secure the nomination.
However, if Michigan and Florida are allowed to revote in a primary, and (conservatively speaking) Clinton reprises her 15 point margins in both states, Obama’s pledged delegate lead shrinks to 12 — 1,740 to 1,728.
At this point, Obama’s proposal to have the superdelegates vote according to the majority in their state would probably flip the lead to Clinton, since Clinton will have probably won more states narrowly, amplifying her lead.
Clinton has two aces in the hole: superdelegates, where she holds a 100-delegate lead, and Puerto Rico with 55 delegates, which has close ties to New York. (Now would be a good time to read up on Bill Clinton’s pardon of the FALN terrorists in 1999.)
UPDATE: Spreadsheet link updated.
UPDATE 2: Thanks to reader Stephen Wagstaff for pointing out that Puerto Rico will be, in practice, winner-take-all — and is as well represented at the convention as a mainland state. Barone has more. With 55 pledged delegates in the Clinton pile, that takes it to Obama +25 and Clinton +22 with Michigan and Florida, before superdelegates.
Tagged: barack obama 
hillary clinton
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You might look again at Puerto Rico. Politico is reporting the Gov. Acevedo will soon endorse Obama. If Barone’s article is right, then that may give PR’s delegates to Obama, not Clinton.
[…] After all the Democratic contests Patrick Ruffini projects Obama with a narrow delegate lead no matter if the Michigan and Florida delegations are counted. It means both campaigns are in the hard slog for unexpected victories to create momentum. Neither one of these candidates wants to deal with a nomination decided by super delegates. Although neither would deny themselves the nomination if gotten in that manner. Save and Share: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. […]
[…] Ruffini’s Dem Delegate Math - Patrick Ruffini With the Democratic race as unsettled as ever, I have put together a spreadsheet with my projections for the remaining primaries and caucuses. (tags: obama hillary_clinton 2008) Posted at 8:23 AM in On My Radar Save to Del.icio.us Share on Facebook […]
[…] Patrick Ruffini has a great post up at his blog calculating the delegate race between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton: “With the Democratic race as unsettled as ever, I have put together a spreadsheet with my projections for the remaining primaries and caucuses. […]