Obama $70M?
by Patrick Ruffini :: March 1st, 2008 10:57 amRemember this graphic? The one we used to power the crowdsourced spreadsheet?
It’s no longer featured on Obama’s site, but it’s been growing at a torrid pace. When I first ventured the $60M prediction a week ago, it stood at just over 600,000.
It was at 963,525 last night at 11:30. It’s now at 985,525 (they are adding to the total in 2,000 increments).
It was at 256,000 on January 31st.
That means that the Obama campaign has received 708,000 individual donations in February. Using the $109 average contribution figure Obama used in the last debate, that translates to $77.2 million.
Now, let’s charitably assume that their average is slipping as the pie gets bigger. Four out of five donations seem to come from repeat givers, judging from the growth of this graphic compared to their “One Million” campaign. If the average is $100 (Kerry’s online average), that’s over $70 million. If it’s $90, that’s $63.7 million. The average contribution would need to be just under $85 for them not to clear $60 million. That’s would be a full $24 below the figure quoted by the candidate himself.
So, while I’m not necessarily predicting $70 million or more myself, I now see it as a distinct possibility. Their body language seems to suggest that $60 million is at the low end of the scale, both in their swagger at Clinton’s $35 million and public predictions of “over $50 million.” Clinton’s team publicly suggested $25 to $30 million and got to $35 million. And while this may be trivial at this point, Obama added $4 million in uncounted money between their $32 million January release and their $36 million FEC filing. A similar shortfall this time would pad their total by $8 million. Since they’ve actually waited until March to announce the total, they might be looking to include every last penny in the report now that $60 million has been factored into public expectations and they’ve been guiding reporters with “over $50 million” for about a week.
If the margin between the prospective Democratic and Republican nominees is in fact on the order of $70 million - $12 million, then we have to put our noses to the grindstone. A period of radical experimentation and innovation is in order, and the playbook gets thrown out the window.
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Tagged: 2008 
barack obama fundraising
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