Momentum beats organization.
Romney has a bit of wind at his back. He’ll finish at or above the final polls.
Santorum will finish a good bit stronger than the final polls, which don’t seem quite to have caught up to the multi-point gains he’s racking up daily. The ceiling for a pure-play SoCo was established in 2008 by Mike Huckabee’s 37 percent and he’s well beneath that. Santorum has upside.
Ron Paul is not a momentum play. He’ll hold his final polling numbers due to his diehard fanatics but that’s it. The enlarged 130K+ caucus electorate works against him.
There will be a stratification between the top tier and the rest. As Newt fades, the question will be if any mainstream conservative has enough gas in the tank to become the anti-Romney in South Carolina and Florida.