Numerous people have sliced and diced the various aspects of the Democratic presidential race — the money chase, the war issue, the national polls, the early primary states — but not enough attention has been paid to the dynamics the calendar itself will play. By "the calendar," I mean the early primary schedule. In the weeks between Iowa and Super Tuesday, it'll have a formative (more accurately, a transformative) impact, shaping who gets the Big Mo heading into the Super Tuesday. Beyond Iowa and New Hampshire, who is likely to do well in which states (and on which dates)? Now that the Calender's almost solidified, here's my take:

January 19, 2004
Iowa - Gephardt, Kerry, Dean

January 27
New Hampshire - Kerry, Dean

What January 28 looks like if Dean scores an upset in one or both: With a New Hampshire victory, he'll have KO'd Kerry, and possibly Gephardt if he wins Iowa, although that'll be harder to do. What is clear is that by setting the bar so high in New Hampshire, Kerry has walked into a big trap. The Granite State is looking more and more like single-elimination between Kerry and Dean. Both badly need a win because as the Calendar will show, liberals won't be back in the driver's seat until Super Tuesday. There's no low-hanging fruit for either of them until then, especially Dean. Since Dean likely won't follow up with wins in the more conservative February 3 states, the best he can hope for is a Lieberman-Edwards-Gephardt stalemate. With that, and with Kerry out of the picture, he could win Cali and New York and end it. ...And if Dean doesn't win? He's screwed. Moreover, an indecisive or expected result in IA/NH (Gephardt/Kerry) that doesn't contribute much to either's momentum could leave room for Lieberman (or Edwards) to make a move in the first day of serious multistate competition on February 3.

February 3, NASCAR/Right-to-Work Tuesday
AZ - Lieberman, Edwards, Hart?
DE - Lieberman, Kerry
MO - Gephardt
NM - Lieberman, Hart?
OK - Lieberman, Edwards
SC - Edwards, Gephardt, Lieberman

What February 4 looks like if Lieberman is still in the race... It's easy to see why Lieberman is focusing on this date, and especially in Arizona. As you can see, he rates five top-tier mentions to three for Edwards, two for Gephardt, and two for Hart. Lieberman does best in national polls and among groups who aren't particularly interested in the race yet, and these states give him a chance to prove his mettle outside the hyper-organized Iowa and New Hampshire. As the only Western candidate, Hart has to opportunity to become the Freddy Picker candidate by generating boomlets in neighboring Arizona and New Mexico. Obviously, Edwards is in pretty serious trouble if he doesn't win South Carolina. ...and if Lieberman has already collapsed or dropped out... then that becomes the opening for Edwards. I see him as the most likely beneficiary because he appeals to the same soft suburbanite constituency as Lieberman, and the February 3 states tend to be fast-growing sunbelt states. Interestingly, Gephardt's constituency is the most conservative (moreso than Lieberman's), consisting largely of urban ethnics, unions, and seniors. But February 3 is weighted toward right-to-work states, which doesn't help him.

February 7
MI - Gephardt, Lieberman
WA - Kerry, Dean

This date should provide some good mini-intrigue on both the Left and Labor fronts. Michigan in particular will test whether Gephardt has legs outside Iowa and Missouri, providing the first real breakthrough opportunity if he's still in the middle of the pack.

February 8
ME - Kerry, Dean

February 10
DC - Sharpton, Dean
VA - Lieberman, Edwards

Increasingly a bellwether, the Old Dominion primary should prove an interesting test of who rules in Virginia Democratic politics: Northern Virginia or the rest of the state? One thing's for sure: Joe Lieberman won't be doing any events with his buddy Jim Moran. Watch who Mark Warner endorses.

February 17
WI - Gephardt

February 24
UT - Lieberman, Hart?

March 2
CA - Lieberman, Kerry
CT - Lieberman
GA - Edwards
HI - Kerry, Dean, Hart?
MD - Lieberman, Kerry
MA - Kerry
MN - Gephardt, Dean
NY - Lieberman, Kerry
OH - Gephardt, Kerry, Lieberman
TX - Edwards, Lieberman
VT - Dean

Obviously, this is where the analysis breaks down somewhat because the early calls here depend so much on the plethora of variables that play out before. Under the Dean surge/Lieberman out/Kerry wounded permutation, Dean could capture New York and California by default and be well on his way to the nomination. How much opposition he has would depends on how strong a stand Gephardt makes in the Rust Belt, or Edwards makes in the South. This scenario also makes sense if you believe this race is one of regional brackets and that only one candidate can emerge from the East (with Gary Hart lurking undisturbed in the West bracket). Under the Kerry still there/Dean hurting/Lieberman ascendant permutation, March 2 becomes an opportunity for Kerry to regain some lost ground to Lieberman, centering around a must-win in California and to a lesser extent, a knockout punch in the Lieberman-friendly Empire State. If it's Kerry there/Dean institutionalized/Edwards climbing expect Edwards to be spending some long nights in the Dallas offices of Baron & Budd, because Texas is the only delegate-rich show of strength that'll impress at that point. I could go on and on, but the night is only so long.

Of course, this all assumes that we'll have the same multipolar race we've got today. If a clear frontrunner emerges, it'll then be a game of winnowing the most plausible national challenger. But if there isn't a clear frontrunner, it's doubtful one will decisively emerge in the relatively slow-burn period between January 27 and March 2. With a regionally varied cast of electorates, voters will take their regional and cultural cues and cast their votes accordingly. Even the relatively unipolar 2000 primary campaigns lingered on during February, and the same should happen again, making for a very interesting month.