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[05.18.03] How Many People Read Blogs? How do you square the finding that the blog audience is not "statistically meaningful" with all the big media attention being showered on us? I think stuff like this has got a lot to do with it. Unlike blogging, Google truly is a mass phenomenon. And if it's true that blogs figure prominently (and inordinately so) in Google search results, that could explain how millions are aware of blogging without necessarily being devoted readers.

How big is the Blogiverse, or at least the political end of it? My casual guess would be that about 100,000 people read current-events blogs on a daily or semi-daily basis. This guess is derived largely from Instapundit's traffic logs. Take his Extreme Traffic counter (which I trust more than Site Meter's), which shows him consistently logging about 50,000 "unique visitors" an average day (and unique doesn't mean a unique person, but merely all the times a page has been called up not as the result of a reload). Conservatively speaking, this probably represents at most 25,000 or 30,000 actual souls, owing to all the people who'll check in multiple times a day because of Glenn's high-update frequency. (As an obligatory note, I did get an inside view of this when he hotlinked one of my images and I observed a 3:1 daily ratio between loads and unique IP addresses viewing the file; that ratio is necessarily lower on this site because I don't post as frequently.)

We also know that Instapundit and a few others so thoroughly dominate the medium traffic-wise that it's only fair to assume that the vast majority of blog readers are content to read their sites alone or use them as launching pads to venture into smaller blogs. To get a sense of what 30,000 daily readers means, consider that only an elite handful of blogs — probably less than a dozen — crack 5,000 uniques a day. By contrast, I'd venture that there are comparatively few users who read blogs like mine but who don't read Reynolds or Andrew Sullivan, so traffic on the big blogs is a pretty good proxy for the overall blog audience.

Now, extrapolate the 30,000 daily uniques figure I've come up with to 50,000 who check in at least once or twice a week. For the sake of argument, assume there's another Instapundit-sized universe out there that rarely ever uses Reynolds' site but are nonetheless avid blog fans. This would get you to 100,000.

Obviously, that humbling number is a pretty far cry from the glossy magazine spreads, the Google deals, and the PBS specials. But is it as insignificant as it seems? Hardly. Blogging's comparative advantage is that it does attract for its readership a fair percentage of influentials, technorati, and other miscellaneous type-A early adopter types. Your average political magazine gets about 75,000 subscribers, and their effect on the policy zeitgeist is not insignificant. Blogs gain further notoriety from Google searches and articles like this, to the point where I'd guess that there are 2 or 3 million people who are casually aware of the phenomenon or track it for professional use without ever really immersing themselves in it.

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Patrick--if 100,000 regular blog readers is accurate--and I have no quarrel with your calculations--that would put blogs on par with the 100th biggest newspaper in America, which has about 100K circulation. Not bad! When you then realize that most papers have readers in just one market, while blogs get politically active readers nationwide (as you point out), that's powerful stuff. How'd you like to be, say, the editorial board of the Albuquerque Journal, at about 108,000 circulation, and have a bunch of bloggers who have not 'paid their dues' breathing down your neck, about to overtake you in readership? Drudge's 7 million+ daily hits long ago sent the major media into a deep depression; now the blogosphere is gunning to overtake all but a few dozen of America's papers in readership...and influence.

Posted by: Michael Paranzino at May 18, 2003 06:00:45 PM

Patrick, you should read Power Laws, Weblogs, and Inequality, if you haven't read it already. It relates fairly well to what you have to say here.

I suspect the audience for weblogs is bigger than you think though. Although I still believe that even one big news magazine like Newsweek probably has more readers than all blogs combined, I think there are more than you credit.

I note that Blogstreet lists over 136,000 known weblogs. Of course, a lot of those are probably abandoned, sometimes multiple blogs are run by the same person, sometimes blogs move but the old ones are kept around for archival purposes. But Blogstreet does a good job of ferreting out non-blogs (things like The Onion and the New York Times aren't listed as "blogs" as they are in some systems). So even if there's an average of two blogs per blogger (which seems awfully high), that would be over 65,000 people who have run blogs at one time or another. Nor do I think it's safe to assume that only bloggers read blogs. I know too many people who read blogs but don't have one and don't particularly want one.

When I was a systems operator on the old GEnie network, we found that of people who posted messages in discussion boards, there were an average of 20 people or so who read the discussion boards but rarely or never posted. I've heard others who've run online communities who found a similar ratio. That was counting casual and occasional visitors.

My guess, therefore, is that the arithmetic mean average number of readers per blogger is 20. If we also assume that half of Blogstreet's blogs are active and run by unique bloggers, at 20 readers per blogger, that's about 1.3 million blog readers.

However, lots of blogs are non-political. They are about sex, or sports, or personal gossip, or Hollywood, or technology. There will of course be overlap, but within that figure I would bet that your 100,000 is a close estimate of the number who read political blogs with any regularity.

I would completely support your points about why and how these blogs would be influential, however. As I wrote in Tinkers to Evers to Chance, political journals, with their tiny circulation, are hugely influential because of who reads them.

Among the most important folks who read them--and now even more frequently read weblogs--are working reporters and journalists. Young people with a passion for politics also read them. Many working politicians read them.

I suspect that the next generation of politicians will have a disproportionate number of bloggers and blog-readers among them.

I should probably post all this on my blogs. ;-)

Posted by: Dean Esmay at May 18, 2003 06:26:28 PM

On a -now defunct- blog I was so fortunate to be linked to from both Sullivan and Instapundit a few times. I noticed every time that a hit on Andrew Sullivan generated much more traffic than Instapundit, perhaps 3 to 4 times as much. This might be because the Professor posts so much that the 'value' of a link is smaller (as not all of his readers will follow all of his links), but the alternative theory is that Sullivan has higher traffice than Instapundit.

Posted by: Bob at May 19, 2003 09:46:49 AM

There are a lot of things that can affect the "quality" of an inbound entry link aside from traffic at the source.

Take my previous post, which is a perfect example because it was linked to by many of the top blogs, including the Professor, Andrew Sullivan, LGF, Atrios, CalPundit, and the Agonist.

The Sullivan and Instapundit posts didn't generate nearly as much traffic as the Atrios link for two reasons: Atrios kept me at the top of the page for longer, priming the pump for a steady influx of trolls, and Atrios' post was short, leaving you curious as to what the link was about. By contrast, Sullivan provided his own all-inclusive commentary on the post, making it less likely that a reader would interrupt his reading of Sullivan to click through to learn more. CalPundit did basically the same thing, so his traffic power didn't translate to clickability.

Posted by: Patrick Ruffini at May 19, 2003 03:59:26 PM

Would it be uncouth to inquire on your normal traffic? I have been curious as to the amount of viewers weblogs receive. I currently help a friend run his weblog of his activities, thoughts and other while he is on active duty in Iraq. Mostly set for family and friends, it gets about 10 hits a day.

Out side of the "big hitters", I'm curious as to the number of hits the average weblog gets. Or is there even such a thing as an average weblog?

Posted by: Plunge at May 19, 2003 07:15:54 PM

Search Results Clogged by Commercial Websites

Bloggers believe scoring high placements in search-engine results is so crucial for generating traffic that many are willing to link to A-list bloggers that they don't even know or email "new media" consultants to secure a good ranking.

Then there are commercial websites. With no deliberate effort, many dedicated commercial publishers are finding their stories rank high on search results for topics that, oftentimes, they claim to know practically nothing about.

Commercial publishers attribute prominent placement to the frequency with which they publish new material and the fact that other sites often link to their news stories. These are two factors most search engines take into account when determining rankings.

"More and more, I'm running into myself on Google," said Jayson, who until recently wrote for a prestigious newspaper from his Brooklyn home.

"I haven't searched for something completely random and found my own stories, but I have searched for specifics on police investigations that I've expressed opinions on a few weeks earlier and had to click through my own postings on numerous occasions," Jayson said in an e-mail.

Other Web surfers are also being directed to Jayson's stories. In a 24-hour period this week, Jayson said he got more than 150,000 click-throughs from Google users, including searches on such keywords as "Kim Possible" (a Disney cartoon), "DC Sniper," "Anthrax Attacks" and "Jeffrey Archer"

"I do remember mentioning that I liked Kim Possible, but the rest don't make much sense," he said.


Still, Jayson is far from the only blogger who's seeing even his most cursory references to a place, idea or technology result in search engine-generated traffic.

Larry McNanny, of Lansing, Michigan, had a similar experience after making a brief reference in his Michican Chronicle to an incident at a local mall. Much later, when he looked up the mall online hoping to find a listing of stores, McNanny's first search result linked to the Michigan Chronicle.

Another time, McNanny said, he and fellow journalists on the editorial team posted a question online about how to correctly use apostrophes. The query generated a high enough search-engine ranking that many other professional writers e-mailed the journalists with questions.

Peter Paddy, who publishes the Miami Daily, says it's common for search-engine queries on topics he's commented briefly about to point users to his site. He believes the trick to achieving prominent search rankings is fairly straightforward: "update frequently and provide good content."

Still, easy as it may be for certain commercial sites to generate high traffic from search-engine users, many bloggers struggle to rank high in online searches related to their interests.

Freddy Mansoni, of Cincinatti, provides a blog that keeps people up to date with daily photos of his pets, says that bloggers often don't realize that they're competing for placement not only with other bloggers but with any business who posts online.

"The Web is absolutely the great equalizer," he said. "Good content rises to the top on the Internet. It doesn't matter if the medium is a blog or a corporate Web page."

Mansoni said many bloggers do not generate as much traffic from search-engine queries as they could because they put hundreds of links to other bloggers on their front page. This prevents search-engine crawlers from indexing those pages and including them in query results.

Many commercial websites, on the other hand, put only a small amount of information on the front page, pointing to a large number of internally linked pages, making it easier for crawlers to access them.

That said, efforts by bloggers to improve positioning appear to be working for random keywords. Random searches of a dozen obscure and incorrectly spelled nouns produced blogs in the top five results.

However, searches that included the word "money" along with a generic noun or company name were highly likely to generate a commercial website among the top results. In searches containing the keywords "money Microsoft," "money Britney Spears," and "money liverwurst," for example, commercial sites showed up prominently in the results.

Mansoni says high rankings of commercial websites in "money"-related searches is probably because commercial websites use more business, formal language on their pages than bloggers sites do.

Moreover, he said, "I don't know that money has a big blogging application."

Posted by: hilc at May 19, 2003 07:38:25 PM

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