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RIP Hal Malchow
Takeaways from GOP primary exit polls, Biden Hispanic underperformance, voter registration shifts, Trump's rising popularity, questions about ballot…
Mar 22
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Patrick Ruffini
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RIP Hal Malchow
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Racial realignment mega-thread
Latinos at the center of the 2024 campaign, what polls got wrong in 2020, my Reason interview, there's time for Biden to catch up, David Shor's…
Mar 16
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Patrick Ruffini
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Racial realignment mega-thread
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Super SOTU Week
The primary was over before it started, more voters say Trump's policies helped them, racial realignment, fake online survey respondents
Mar 8
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Patrick Ruffini
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Super SOTU Week
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21 Keys to the Keystone State
Part 2 of my analysis into Pennsylvania and 2024 dives deep on the state's political regions
Mar 5
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Patrick Ruffini
3
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21 Keys to the Keystone State
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Is Trump falling short of expectations?
What "uncommitted" means for 2024, NY Dems go mild not wild, a history of ticket-splitting, polling on Ozempic, the MENA Census category
Mar 1
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Patrick Ruffini
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Is Trump falling short of expectations?
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February 2024
Will young men save Trump?
Black voters in Louisiana, polls vs. specials, South Carolina preview, race and gender in schools, 25% of TikTok users produce 98% of its content
Feb 23
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Patrick Ruffini
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Will young men save Trump?
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No one knows which ads work
Even losing candidates win, how to measure identity, what voters want in a president, Taylor Swift conspiracy theory registers in polling
Feb 16
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Patrick Ruffini
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No one knows which ads work
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Special election voters are different
Biden's opening, immigration matters more, views of institutions, anxious teens, defending internal polls, the secret of Trump's fundraising, top…
Feb 9
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Patrick Ruffini
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Special election voters are different
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Why the 2024 election is happening out of order
Biden is experiencing the perils of presiding over his opponent's second term
Feb 6
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Patrick Ruffini
5
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Why the 2024 election is happening out of order
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January 2024
538's refreshed pollster ratings
Ratings of the economy, but not of Joe Biden, go up. Plus: Haley's tough path forward, Biden's New Hampshire performance, and why Republican parents…
Jan 26
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Patrick Ruffini
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538's refreshed pollster ratings
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Biden's working class New Hampshire woes
What we can learn from the first Democratic ballots of the 2024 race
Jan 25
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Patrick Ruffini
5
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Biden's working class New Hampshire woes
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On to New Hampshire
The party decides, the demographic divide behind Trump's first win, an early look at reapportionment, and "climate matching."
Jan 19
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Patrick Ruffini
3
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On to New Hampshire
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