Two big pieces of 2024 data

Presidential-by-CD and full vote history, it all came down to turnout in Wisconsin, Conclave 2025, migration data, Trump approval drops

No. 358 | April 25th, 2025

🇺🇲 2024

The Downballot, formerly Daily Kos Elections, released their 2024 presidential results for all 435 house seats this week. 

G24 vote history is complete in L2. It’s calculated a bit differently, but Echelon Insights called a D+1.3 electorate by registration the week before the election and L2’s final number shows we were exactly on target, at D+1.3.

Party registration is not party ID, though, which we think currently stands at R+3 for the 2024 electorate. That’s why you’re continuing to see Republicans make gains in registration, as people update their registration to match their party affiliation.

Also, for those doubting that new voters would make the difference: there were 20.3 million first time voters, around 13% of the total. 

L2 also tracked 4.6% of the electorate that moved across state lines since 2020. The highest rate of new movers was Florida, at 11.7%.

Below is a rundown from their email: