2022: It all came down to turnout

Plus: How a third party might help Trump, The Liberal Patriot's new polling project, Trump's Evangelical problem in Iowa, confidence in higher education down sharply

No. 275 | July 14, 2023

🗳️ Elections

Hannah Hartig, Andrew Daniller, Scott Keeter and Ted Van Green: Republican Gains in 2022 Midterms Driven Mostly by Turnout Advantage (Pew Research Center)

“In midterm elections that yielded mixed results for both parties, Republicans won the popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives largely on the strength of higher turnout.

A new Pew Research Center analysis of verified voters and nonvoters in 2022, 2020, 2018 and 2016 finds that partisan differences in turnout – rather than vote switching between parties – account for most of the Republican gains in voting for the House last year.

Overall, 68% of those who voted in the 2020 presidential election turned out to vote in the 2022 midterms. Former President Donald Trump’s voters turned out at a higher rate in 2022 (71%) than did President Joe Biden’s voters (67%).”

Nate Cohn: What Really Happened in the Midterms? (The New York Times 🔒)

“More than eight months later, all the data from the 2022 midt…