The Intersection

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2024’s overperformers
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2024’s overperformers

The industrial north, betting markets go big, dating in the Trump era, tribal primary electorates, the marriage gap isn't what you think, ad spending on X

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Patrick Ruffini
Jan 31, 2025
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2024’s overperformers
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No. 347 | January 31th, 2025

A Special Announcement: I've signed with UTA Speakers for public speaking engagements. Big changes are afoot in politics and with it comes great interest in understanding what the political Realignment means for business and culture. If you're interested in unpacking this data with me live, check out my page on the UTA Speakers website.

🇺🇲 2024

Republicans barely won the House even as Trump won 230 Congressional districts. This thread with maps goes further than any I’ve seen in breaking down the reasons for these Democratic overperformances.

Split Ticket also released an update to their Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) model that can also help us understand this issue better.

“Our new model learns from the state-level environments in a much more controlled and targeted fashion. Through a combination of demographics and generic ballot context, it recognizes that Democrats in Wisconsin broadly did extremely well across the board — and it correctly infers that this…

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