2024’s overperformers
The industrial north, betting markets go big, dating in the Trump era, tribal primary electorates, the marriage gap isn't what you think, ad spending on X
No. 347 | January 31th, 2025
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🇺🇲 2024
Republicans barely won the House even as Trump won 230 Congressional districts. This thread with maps goes further than any I’ve seen in breaking down the reasons for these Democratic overperformances.
Split Ticket also released an update to their Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) model that can also help us understand this issue better.
“Our new model learns from the state-level environments in a much more controlled and targeted fashion. Through a combination of demographics and generic ballot context, it recognizes that Democrats in Wisconsin broadly did extremely well across the board — and it correctly infers that this…
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