250-maxxing
The people, places, and things that define America, new political tribes coming, NYT/Siena's methodological revolution, the Michigan ICS is broken, mythbusting AI job loss, Britain is shifting
No. 407 | July 3, 2026
đşđ˛ America at 250: What Americans think
Happy 250th birthday to the United States of America, the country the data tells us remains No. 1 economically and militarily. Many have predicted its decline, but in recent decades every challenge from a would-be competitor, whether Japan, Europe, or China, has eventually lost steam. Numbers aside, it is a pretty great place. More than the official celebrations, the World Cup visitors marveling at our material bounty and natural beauty remind us of that.
The political decisions made in 1776, with their healthy aversion to centralized power, allowed America to fully reap the economic bounty of another product of 1776: the capitalist system envisioned by Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations. Centuries of entrepreneurial immigration have reinforced that advantage. Together, these factors formed natural antibodies to the socialist influence that sapped the vital spirit of many European countries. Two and a half centuries of political and economic freedom have made the United States not only the most powerful nation on Earth, but one you should not bet against in the next 250.
In our America 250 survey, we asked Americans what the one thing is that you can find in America and nowhere else. The raw responses â listed here â are a pretty good summation of all the things that define American culture. Itâs not just freedom or natural landmarks, but Buc-eeâs, BBQ, Walmart, ranch dressing, and Dollywood.
And which broad factors make America unique? Republicans and Democrats agree that our history is #1, but with Republicans more likely to emphasize our system of government and entrepreneurship, and Democrats more likely to cite land and nature, sports, and tech innovation.
Which one person would Americans make the face of the 250th celebrations? Democrats are more likely to say Barack Obama than Republicans are Donald Trump, making him #1, but itâs the most-mentioned non-political faces that are the most interesting: Tom Hanks, Dolly Parton, The Rock, Bruce Springsteen, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett.
Which companies represent America most? Coca-Cola, McDonaldâs, Walmart, and Ford.
â° Mark your calendars
Echelonâs 2026 Political Tribes are coming July 9. Hereâs a preview.
đ NYT/Sienaâs methodological revolution
A new round of New York Times/Siena polls in Senate battlegrounds is something of a reset of conventional wisdom in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans are tied or narrowly ahead in the red states where Democrats need to win to take control. And they still need to overcome a candidate quality deficit in Maine. Itâs not that the political environment wonât make even some more solidly red states competitive. Itâs that winning in states the other party won in the last presidential election by more than 10 points is hard, that U.S. Senate elections have continued to get more partisan, and Republicans currently enjoy a financial edge which will help them nudge red state voters back in the direction of partisan fundamentals.
There are also some new methodological innovations which are always exciting to read about given the thought and care Nate Cohn puts into these polls. One is weighting on modeled scores and the other is energy balancing, a technique more advanced than rake weighting that models how representative each voter is across a variety of dimensions at once and balances the sample accordingly.
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ď¸ Online sampling is pushing the gold-standard consumer confidence survey left
In a more troubling methodological development, the University of Michiganâs Index of Consumer Sentiment has turned more negative, but that seems largely attributable to a shift to online sampling without partisan controls producing samples that are wildly too Democratic â like D+30. Because this shift happened mostly under Donald Trumpâs presidency, the natural consequence of this is lower reported consumer confidence, writes Joel Wertheimer on Silver Bulletin.
đ¤ Mythbusting AI job loss with corporate spending data
Data from Rampâs platform measuring corporate spend finds that the most aggressive AI adopters increased headcount while firms with low AI adoption didnât grow at all. Wouldnât it be the other way around if AI cost jobs?
đŹđ§ Britainâs shifting electorate
Two years after the 2024 election, a new YouGov survey of nearly 20,000 Britons maps where each partyâs voters have gone. We love a good Sankey because it shows how complex voter behavior is beneath the surface, and in the UK, you can find examples of voters from every party switching to every other party. But the largest shifts have been 2024 Labour voters shifting to the Greens and 2024 Conservatives shifting to Reform UK.
