538's refreshed pollster ratings

Ratings of the economy, but not of Joe Biden, go up. Plus: Haley's tough path forward, Biden's New Hampshire performance, and why Republican parents raise Democratic daughters

No. 301 | January 26, 2024

📊  Public Opinion

G. Elliott Morris: What are the best pollsters in America? (538)

• Author’s note: Echelon Insights retains its top ranking — #27 out of 539 — and is #3 in the nation among partisan/campaign polling firms.

“With former President Donald Trump’s recent Republican presidential primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, we can now say with near certainty that the 2024 general election will feature a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor. Both the stakes of the election and the odds of the outcome are of great importance, and people will be paying them a lot of attention over the next 10 months. And if social media conversations and news coverage about the primary are any indication, public opinion polls will feature very heavily in the discourse about the general election.

In fact, we are due, by my estimation, to be inundated with around 1,500 polls of elections for president, senator, governor and the U.S. House by November. For poll-readers trying to analyze each one, it will feel like drinking from a firehose. Each poll brings with it an array of questions about trust and reliability. For instance, when two polls disagree, which do we trust more? And when we’re averaging polls together (538’s preferred solution to the firehose problem), how can we quantify our preference in a way that is statistically valid and leads to the most accurate models?”

538’s Pollster Ratings (538)

“Based on the historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls.

538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodological transparency of each polling organization’s polls. We define accuracy as the average adjusted error and bias of a pollster’s surveys. Error and bias scores are adjusted for polls’ sample sizes, how far before the election they were conducted, the type of election polled, the polls’ performance relative to other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Transparency Scores are based on our accounting of how much information organizations release about how each of their polls were conducted.”

Americans More Upbeat on the Economy; Biden’s Job Rating Remains Very Low (Pew Research Center)

“Americans’ views of the nation’s economy – while mostly stagnant for the past few years – are showing signs of improvement. Slightly more than a quarter (28%) rate economic conditions as excellent or good, a 9 percentage point increase from last April.

Virtually all the change since then has come among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Currently, 44% of Democrats have positive views of the economy – the highest share of Joe Biden’s presidency.”

Rachel Minkin, Kim Parker, Juliana Menasce Horowitz, and Carolina Aragao: Parents, Young Adult Children and the Transition to Adulthood (Pew Research Center)

“As parents watch their young adult children navigate the transition to adulthood, they’re feeling more proud and hopeful than disappointed or worried.

And they’re highly invested in how life turns out for their kids. Most parents of young adults (71%) say their children’s successes and failures reflect on the job they’ve done as parents. This is especially true of upper-income parents.

A pair of new surveys from Pew Research Center finds the lives of parents and their young adult children (ages 18 to 34) are closely knit together through emotional and financial ties.”

How the Biden White House Cornered Itself (American Compass)

“Commentators have expressed befuddlement at the widespread disapproval of President Joe Biden and his economic policies, given the American economy’s strong performance on many traditional measures. While the White House spent much of the last year promoting “Bidenomics,” Americans reacted negatively to the term. What is going on?

In November 2023, American Compass partnered with YouGov to survey 1,000 Americans about their views on ten economic policies pursued by the Biden administration—five of which are “broadly supported” (drug prices, infrastructure, semiconductors, competition, tariffs) and five of which are ‘polarizing’ (climate, immigration, student loans, safety-net expansion, unconditional child tax credit).”

🗳️ Elections

Nathaniel Rakich: If Haley couldn't win New Hampshire, she probably won't win anywhere (538)

“New Hampshire was supposed to be former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s big breakout. She spent more of her time in the state, and spent more money on ads there, than any other Republican presidential candidate — and yet she still lost to former President Donald Trump. As of Tuesday night at 11 p.m. Eastern, Trump had 54 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, and Haley had 45 percent.

Trump’s win likely closes the door on any possibility that he could lose the GOP nomination. While most delegates have yet to be awarded and Haley is still technically contesting the race, it’s not clear where she’ll be able to win any primaries or caucuses; New Hampshire was likely her best shot. As a result, it’s now pretty likely that Trump will sweep all 56 states and territories in the 2024 Republican primary.”

Patrick Ruffini: Biden's working class New Hampshire woes (The Intersection)

“Much of the attention to the primary has been justifiably focused on the Republican contest, but there was a Democratic primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Joe Biden won it as a write-in candidate with 65% of the vote.

While this result will likely be enough to calm any speculation that Biden faces any kind of serious threat from Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips, demographic patterns in the results confirm Biden’s vulnerabilities with working class voters that we’ve been seeing in the polls for months now. For just as long, the critics of this kind of polling analysis have been asking to look at “actual votes,” specifically the results of abortion referenda and special elections where Biden himself is not on the ballot. Well we now have “actual votes” in the presidential election, and though Biden’s name was on the ballot, interesting patterns have emerged in the pattern of the votes cast for and against him.”

👫 Demographics

Gregory A. Smith, Patricia Tevington, Justin Nortey, Michael Rotolo, Asta Kallo, and Becka A. Alper: Religious ‘Nones’ in America: Who They Are and What They Believe (Pew Research Center)

“Today, about 28% of U.S. adults are religiously unaffiliated, describing themselves as atheists, agnostics or ‘nothing in particular’ when asked about their religion.

At Pew Research Center, we get lots of questions about this group, often called the “nones.” What do ‘nones’ believe? Are they opposed to religion? What are their views about science? Is their growth good or bad for society, and why?”

Daniel Cox: Why Republican Parents Raise Democratic Daughters (American Storylines)

“Our parents play a critical role in shaping our political perspectives and values. Politically active parents tend to raise children who become lifelong voters, while politically apathetic parents tend to have children who are disinterested in politics. Research has long shown that political beliefs and identity carry forward across generations—a process generally known as political socialization.  

But the socialization process works imperfectly. Not every Republican parent has Republican children and vice versa. Family dynamics are complicated, and parents are hardly the only figures who influence their children’s political development.”

@jburnmurdoch: “NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world. I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles.” (Twitter)