America is moving to red states
The drivers of internal migration, big turnout expected for 2026, Elias disses Election Twitter, Chart of the Century update, hating your state, long live window seats
No. 389 | January 30, 2026
👫 Red state population boom
The latest Census population estimates are out, and they show a slowing down of population growth thanks to a fall in international migration — and a continuing shift of the population into states won by Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
At the state level, nineteen states lost population to domestic migration to other states, with California experiencing the biggest net loss — 229,077 people. With the crackdown at the border and stepped-up immigration enforcement, domestic migration is what’s increasingly deciding whether states will gain or lose House seats after the next decennial census in 2030.
Every state projected to lose House seats was a Biden state in 2020, while every state that would gain seats was a Trump state in 2024. If these reapportionment projections came to pass, Trump would have won by 9 more electoral votes in 2024 and would not have needed to win any of the “Blue Wall” states to win.
Lest we get too far out fro…
