Biden's working class New Hampshire woes

What we can learn from the first Democratic ballots of the 2024 race

Much of the attention to the primary has been justifiably focused on the Republican contest, but there was a Democratic primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Joe Biden won it as a write-in candidate with 65% of the vote.

While this result will likely be enough to calm any speculation that Biden faces any kind of serious threat from Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips, demographic patterns in the results confirm Biden’s vulnerabilities with working class voters that we’ve been seeing in the polls for months now. For just as long, the critics of this kind of polling analysis have been asking to look at “actual votes,” specifically the results of abortion referenda and special elections where Biden himself is not on the ballot. Well we now have “actual votes” in the presidential election, and though Biden’s name was on the ballot, interesting patterns have emerged in the pattern of the votes cast for and against him.