Big city realignment

A failed messaging pivot, the need for moderation, shattered assumptions, downballot Dem survival, high turnout wouldn't have helped Harris, polling error was still bad, mobile is eating the world

No. 340 | December 6, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

155,234,550 votes counted based on the Cook Political tally. Our 153.7M estimate continues to be very close.

U.S. presidential vote swing in the Trump electoral era, 2012 - 2024.

There was a realignment in New York City, with Democratic votes dropping precipitously in large swaths of the city and Trump votes growing or holding steady.