Big city warning signs for Democrats

Don't discount big shifts, Black and Arab voters in Michigan, 128 paths, pollster house effects, the education divide in civil society, how names predict partisanship, obesity on the decline

No. 333 | October 4th, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

It continues to be a remarkably stable race, with no change in the average of the averages from last week. Harris is sitting near a high in the Silver Bulletin polling average, while the New York Times average narrowed 

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +3.4 (H+0.4)

• 538: Harris +2.5 (T+0.2)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +2 (T+1)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +3.4 (T+0.6)

• RCP: Harris +2.2 (H+0.2)

• Cook Political: Harris +2.5 (H+0.1)

• VoteHub: Harris +3.4 (H+0.7)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +3.5 (NC)

Average of the Averages: Harris +2.9 (NC)

The Philly Inquirer is back with one of their precinct deep-dives (that I’m obviously a huge fan of). They dig into voting trends in the city of Philadelphia, and find losing ground with working class voters.

Turnout will be a huge factor in cities this November, particularly if turnout drops from 2020’s record high. The hit will mostly be among low-propensity voters, concentrated in big cities, where Democrats count on hitting specific raw vote goals. Here, it’…