Catalist shows a durable partisan realignment
How the polls were bad in 2024, a more diverse electorate, low Dem ratings may not matter, Latino partisanship, community types, AI snitching
No. 361 | May 23rd, 2025
🇺🇲 2024
Probably the most trusted account of how different groups voted in the election, Catalist’s “What Happened” report from 2024 is now out. It confirms the broad realignment of key groups in 2024, with Hispanics shifting 18 points right, Asians 9 points, and Black voters 6 points. But on the gender gap, it contradicts the narrative from the post-election exit polls.
Both the Edison exit poll and AP VoteCast found no real widening of the gender gap in 2024, but Catalist has it ballooning to 26 points—men for Trump by 16 points, women for Harris by 10. Because everyone is in agreement that nonwhite men swung the most strongly to Trump, the biggest differences between the exits and Catalist are among whites. To take one example, where AP VoteCast had white college women swinging 7 points to Trump and white college men 2 points to Harris, Catalist has this flipped: white college men moving 10 points to Trump, and white college women 2 points.
That result better…
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