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Debate debacle

Silver speaks, The Upshot's poll tracker, Trump more trusted on democracy, Bowman vs. Latimer, tracking ballot access, obscure Biden cabinet officials, Chipotle burrito bowl rigging

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Patrick Ruffini
Jun 28, 2024
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No. 321 | June 28, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

The presidential prediction market saw a nosedive in Biden’s implied probability, with a 6% drop during the debate alone, followed by an additional 11% afterward. 

Most of the shift was towards other Democratic hopefuls, though, as many bettors foresee a swap at the top of the Demoratic ticket. 

Biden’s performance, already predicted to be poor, was even worse than voters anticipated.

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