Debate debacle
Silver speaks, The Upshot's poll tracker, Trump more trusted on democracy, Bowman vs. Latimer, tracking ballot access, obscure Biden cabinet officials, Chipotle burrito bowl rigging
No. 321 | June 28, 2024
🇺🇲 2024
The presidential prediction market saw a nosedive in Biden’s implied probability, with a 6% drop during the debate alone, followed by an additional 11% afterward.
Most of the shift was towards other Democratic hopefuls, though, as many bettors foresee a swap at the top of the Demoratic ticket.
Biden’s performance, already predicted to be poor, was even worse than voters anticipated.
Nate Silver’s 2024 forecast model is finally out. Before the debate, he had Trump as a 65% favorite. (But, of course, there’s no way for any of these models to account for the contingency of either candidate being replaced before November.) Here’s his non-paywalled polling aggregate:
Meanwhile, the New York Times’s Upshot releases its poll tracker, making this a big week for high-quality modeling and polling aggregation launches.
Low-propensity deciders trust Trump’s solutions to threats to democracy over Biden’s. The meaning of an abstract term like “threats to democracy” might be perfectly clear to Democratic base voters, but is largely lost on the swing voters who will decide the election.
Settlement patterns, race, and religion played a big role in George Latimer’s defeat of Jamaal Bowman in NY-16.
Third party ballot access (or lack thereof) remains an underrated X-factor in the swing states. Politico launched a ballot access tracker I’ll definitely be bookmarking.
🗣️ Public Opinion
Most Americans can only recognize the names of three of Biden’s cabinet officials.
New polling argues that differences on foreign policy between MAGA and non-Republicans are not as large as commonly assumed.
Polarization has split America on several key issues, including on the size and scope of the federal government.
🏀 Sports
For those who hope to become hockey players in the NHL, being born in Canada or the Northeast United States is a good start.
🗺️ Data Visualization
It’s not just you: There’s insane variation in the size of Chipotle burrito bowls.