Dem good news edition

The 538 forecast is finally back online, where Harris does better in the crosstabs, convention ratings, WA statewide primary tea leaves, trends don't continue forever

No. 327 | August 23, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

Convention week was another positive one for Kamala Harris with a lead in the average of averages of 2.4 points, up 0.7 points from last week. 

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +2.5 (H+0.1)

• 538: Harris +3.6 (H+1)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +2 (H+0)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +3.2 (H+1.4)

• RCP: Harris +1.5 (H+0.5)

• Cook Political: Harris +1.0 (H+0.6)

• VoteHub: Harris +2.3  (H+1.0)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +3.2 (H+1.0) (NEW)

Average of the Averages: Harris +2.4 (H+0.7)

The 538 presidential forecast is finally back online. It has Harris at a 58% win probability. For those curious what changed with the switch, it picked up exactly where the Trump/Biden model left off, with Trump a narrow 53% favorite on the day Biden dropped out. 

Nate Cohn sounds some skeptical notes. It sounds like what was needed to get this seamless transition from Biden to Harris was an overnight change from a 4-to-1 weight for “fundamentals” over polls to a weight of 4-to-1 in favor of the polls.