My 2024 after-action review takes a detour outside last year’s battleground to cover a big shift in a place that will also feature prominently in 2025’s off-year elections: New Jersey.
For this analysis, I’m debuting 16 precinct-level micro-communities that will help tell the story of the 2024 swing and the 2025 Governor’s race.
The basic presidential after-action review is available to all subscribers. As always, full charts and coverage of statewide races, specifically the Governor’s race, are included below the free preview for paid subscribers.
New Jersey’s Political Geography and the 2024 Shift
New Jersey swung 10 points to the right, taking it to the edge of battleground status, with a margin of 5.9 points for Harris. New Jersey was nearly as close as battleground Arizona, which went for Trump by 5.5 points.
The shift was higher across the board in the very populous New York City suburbs of Northern New Jersey. Every demographic group swung in the New York metro swung, even very w…
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