Drop-out math, 2024 as 1948

High suburban turnout, racial depolarization in the South, how abortion-rights backers changed their message

No. 298 | January 5, 2024

🗳️ Elections

Nathaniel Rakich: Who stands to gain if DeSantis drops out? Or Haley? Or Christie? (538)

“When North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum dropped out of the presidential race, he had so little support that it didn't affect the Republican primary campaign. When former Vice President Mike Pence ended his campaign, the polls didn't really shift. When former Rep. Will Hurd withdrew, it barely made a ripple.

But now, on the verge of the first primaries and caucuses, most candidates left in the race are big fish, and their inevitable (there can be only one nominee, after all) withdrawals have the potential to significantly alter the trajectory of the campaign. If Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished third in Iowa and decided to end his campaign, a not-insignificant 12 percent of Republican voters nationwide* would be up for grabs. If former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie bowed out before New Hampshire, 11 percent of Granite State Republicans would be looking for a new c…