Fall of the Resistance

A 2028 contest between left- and right-populists is looking more and more possible

Remember the resistance? These were the people who during Trump 1.0 marched in pink hats in the shape of reproductive organs and lit Robert Mueller prayer candles. To them, democracy versus authoritarianism was the central political conflict of the age. To the extent they engaged in normal left-right debates, they were heavily weighted towards social and cultural questions, defending the rights of immigrants, women, and LGBTQ people from Trumpist attack. They had very little to say about economic questions, which used to be the main dividing line between the parties.

The Resistance was fundamentally united by a belief that the system worked—and in the Obama era it in fact did for liberals. The system had come a long way in solving the major representational challenges of modern America, electing the first Black President and elevating the first female major party nominee. RBG sat on the Supreme Court, issuing her scathing dissents. Whatever the problems with the system, they could be solved by good and virtuous people within it.

A moodboard of normie #Resist-style liberalism

The movement was one for and by elites that in fact tried to create common cause with the old Republican elite overthrown by Trump. It elevated Trump’s foes in law enforcement, the national security establishment, and the military — figures like Mueller, James Comey, George Conway, Sally Yates, the Vindman brothers, or Mark Milley. The FBI and the CIA became left-coded institutions in this period; being an alum of one of these was usually enough to get you through a Democratic primary. This movement and its vibes were central to Democratic victories in 2018 and 2020.

In 2026, it’s a different story. The energy has shifted to the progressive left, which is building an anti-system opposition to Trump antithetical to the politics of the old resistance.

To collapse the fight in Democratic primaries to “moderate vs. progressive” or “establishment vs. progressive” is reductive. There’s a distinct liberal bloc — dominated by #Resist types — that’s also starting to lose out.

NY-10 Congressman Dan Goldman was the archetype resistance hero, a former SDNY prosecutor tapped by Democrats to be the lead counsel in the first Trump impeachment. He was just beaten 2-to-1 by progressive Zohran Mamdani ally Brad Lander.

Or take Mallory McMorrow, first elected in 2018 and catapulted to national fame in 2022 after a viral floor speech defending herself against accusations that she supported the “grooming” of children. Describing herself as a “straight, white, Christian, married, suburban mom,” she became a symbol of a Democratic politics centered on defending liberal cultural values against anti-woke politics. Once celebrated as a liberal fighter, she’s running a distant third in the Michigan primary and has been eclipsed on the left Abdul El Sayed, a Bernie-style progressive.

This shift represents a fundamental fundamental reorientation of the Democratic base’s psychological appetite. Where the 2018-era Resistance found comfort in institutional stability and the defense of norms, the 2026 version looks with admiration to Trump’s two victories and aims to create a left-wing version of them. The goal is to overthrow an economic order they were blocked from changing both by Clinton-era moderation or Obama-era liberalism.

Politics—not just on the right—has grown a lot more anti-system in the ten years since Brexit and Trump. Economic anxiety driven by cost of living concerns creates a space for the progressive left to build their own form of anti-system populism. And it’s not just moderates who are out of step with the moment, but resistance liberals.

This tension is highlighted in Echelon polling. Only a minority of Democrats want the party to move to the left versus staying where it is now or moving to the center. So, Democrats as a whole are still sensitive to the optics of nominating far-left progressives, even if that’s becoming more and more the norm in blue cities where there’s no real risk of a Democrat losing the general election.

But substantively, rank-and-file Democrats are already socialists. Fully 68 percent of democrats embrace democratic socialism over just 20 percent who favor regulated capitalism — a split that rises to 80 to 13 percent among Democrats under 50. When there’s no electability risk, something that’s true in the majority of districts where Democrats hold power, Democratic voters are more and more seeing no reason not to go with the more progressive option. But we can see the progressive contagion spreading to red and purple districts, as in Maine’s 2nd district, where a progressive won the primary for outgoing moderate Democrat Jared Golden’s seat, or in Michigan, where Democrats may well nominate the furthest-left candidate.

All of this is a long wind-up to the argument that we are undervaluing the odds of a progressive winning the Democratic nomination in 2028, setting up a real contest of left and right populism in a general election.

To date, progressives have been blocked by electability concerns from actually capturing the party. But the 2026 primaries show this argument weakening, particularly if progressives can show swing state success. These sorts of arguments also tended to hold a lot of sway with Republicans—until 2016.

Nominating contests are contingent on a lot more than the ideological predisposition of primary electorates. One can argue that a combined moderate and liberal bloc can easily block a progressive nominee. But ideological positioning is not all there is. Charisma and personality determine a lot too. And if the avatars of establishment liberalism — looking at you Gavin and Kamala — prove to be weak standard-bearers for this putative majority coalition within the party, they can easily be eclipsed by a progressive with Mamdani-like star power. Democrats substantively want what progressives are selling, just as Republicans in 2016 fundamentally wanted hardline anti-immigration politics. They just need to be convinced that a progressive champion is charismatic enough to bust through old-school ideas of electability. If he were eligible, Mamdani would fit the bill. The biggest question in politics over the next two years is whether AOC does.