Haley rising, but only so much

College grads sticking with Trump, the disappearing incumbency advantage, a new crosstab aggregator, abortion vs. weed in Ohio, and America's favorite Christmas cookie

No. 295 | December 8, 2023

🗳️ Elections

Nate Cohn: Why Haley Is Rising Among the Rivals to Trump (New York Times)

“If you dozed off while following the Republican primary, I wouldn’t blame you. But it might be worth perking up for a moment.

Over the last few months, Nikki Haley has gained enough in the polls that she might be on the verge of surpassing Ron DeSantis as Donald J. Trump’s principal rival in the race.

With Ms. Haley still a full 50 percentage points behind Mr. Trump in national polls, her ascent doesn’t exactly endanger his path to the nomination. If anything, she is a classic factional candidate — someone who’s built a resilient base of support by catering to the wishes of a minority of the party. So if you were reading this only on the off chance that Mr. Trump might be in jeopardy, you can doze off again.”

Kyle Kondik: The GOP Primary: Lowest-Hanging Fruit Remains Out of Reach for Trump Rivals (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

“Of course, both DeSantis and Haley are well behind Trump …